Republican incumbent Abraham Hamadeh holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, a suburban Phoenix seat with a Republican-leaning partisan voter index that favored his 2024 victory by double digits. After unopposed renomination and Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia’s primary win, fundraising and name recognition favor the Republican, yet the district’s mix of independent and moderate voters plus national midterm dynamics keep projected margins in the low-to-mid teens. Trader pricing across the listed Republican victory bands reflects this balance, with the largest concentrations around 15-18 points and 6-9 points, while Democratic outcomes cluster lower. Limited recent polling and the absence of major campaign developments since the July primaries have left probabilities stable, though shifts in turnout, generic ballot trends, or late spending could widen or narrow the final spread before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 3 %+ 40%
Républicain 0-3 % 33%
Républicain 9-12 % 30%
Républicain 15-18 % 30%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 21 %+
25%
Républicain 18-21 %
27%
Républicain 15-18 %
30%
Républicain 12-15 %
25%
Républicain 9-12 %
30%
Républicain 6-9 %
27%
Républicain 3-6 %
21%
Républicain 0-3 %
33%
Démocrate 0-3%
27%
Démocrate 3 %+
40%
Démocrate 3 %+ 40%
Républicain 0-3 % 33%
Républicain 9-12 % 30%
Républicain 15-18 % 30%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 21 %+
$19 Vol.
25%
Républicain 18-21 %
$19 Vol.
27%
Républicain 15-18 %
$19 Vol.
30%
Républicain 12-15 %
$19 Vol.
25%
Républicain 9-12 %
$19 Vol.
30%
Républicain 6-9 %
$19 Vol.
27%
Républicain 3-6 %
$19 Vol.
21%
Républicain 0-3 %
$19 Vol.
33%
Démocrate 0-3%
$19 Vol.
27%
Démocrate 3 %+
$19 Vol.
40%
The 2026 AZ-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican incumbent Abraham Hamadeh holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, a suburban Phoenix seat with a Republican-leaning partisan voter index that favored his 2024 victory by double digits. After unopposed renomination and Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia’s primary win, fundraising and name recognition favor the Republican, yet the district’s mix of independent and moderate voters plus national midterm dynamics keep projected margins in the low-to-mid teens. Trader pricing across the listed Republican victory bands reflects this balance, with the largest concentrations around 15-18 points and 6-9 points, while Democratic outcomes cluster lower. Limited recent polling and the absence of major campaign developments since the July primaries have left probabilities stable, though shifts in turnout, generic ballot trends, or late spending could widen or narrow the final spread before November.
The 2026 AZ-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ET
Volume
$190Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AZ-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Republican incumbent Abraham Hamadeh holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, a suburban Phoenix seat with a Republican-leaning partisan voter index that favored his 2024 victory by double digits. After unopposed renomination and Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia’s primary win, fundraising and name recognition favor the Republican, yet the district’s mix of independent and moderate voters plus national midterm dynamics keep projected margins in the low-to-mid teens. Trader pricing across the listed Republican victory bands reflects this balance, with the largest concentrations around 15-18 points and 6-9 points, while Democratic outcomes cluster lower. Limited recent polling and the absence of major campaign developments since the July primaries have left probabilities stable, though shifts in turnout, generic ballot trends, or late spending could widen or narrow the final spread before November.
The 2026 AZ-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$190Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:04 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Republican incumbent Abraham Hamadeh holds a structural edge in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, a suburban Phoenix seat with a Republican-leaning partisan voter index that favored his 2024 victory by double digits. After unopposed renomination and Democrat Bernadette Greene-Placentia’s primary win, fundraising and name recognition favor the Republican, yet the district’s mix of independent and moderate voters plus national midterm dynamics keep projected margins in the low-to-mid teens. Trader pricing across the listed Republican victory bands reflects this balance, with the largest concentrations around 15-18 points and 6-9 points, while Democratic outcomes cluster lower. Limited recent polling and the absence of major campaign developments since the July primaries have left probabilities stable, though shifts in turnout, generic ballot trends, or late spending could widen or narrow the final spread before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti démocrate gagnera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre AZ-07 de 2026 avec une avance de 25 à 30 % ?
26%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre des représentants de l'AZ-09 en 2026 avec une avance de 5 à 10 % ?
14%
Oui
Le candidat du Parti démocrate remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre de l'AZ-06 en 2026 avec une avance de 3% à 6% ?
23%
Oui
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