**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping daily counts at low single-digit levels as of early September 2026.** Recent tracking data show 7-day averages near 4 arrivals—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline of ~74 daily—reflecting persistent risks from IRGC route controls, attacks on non-compliant vessels, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and operator avoidance. With the conflict entering its seventh month and no durable reopening agreement in place, trader consensus reflected in the 48% implied probability for 5-10 ships and 37% for 0-5 aligns with sustained low throughput. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in U.S.-Iran talks, sanctions enforcement, or further kinetic incidents that could alter routing or insurance availability before month-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNombre moyen de navires transitant par le détroit d'Ormuz fin septembre ?
Nombre moyen de navires transitant par le détroit d'Ormuz fin septembre ?
5-10 48%
0-5 37%
10-15 7%
15-20 5.0%
$13,688 Vol.
$13,688 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
0-5
37%
5-10
48%
10-15
7%
15-20
5%
20-25
2%
25-30
4%
30+
3%
5-10 48%
0-5 37%
10-15 7%
15-20 5.0%
$13,688 Vol.
$13,688 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
0-5
$3,072 Vol.
37%
5-10
$2,225 Vol.
48%
10-15
$2,800 Vol.
7%
15-20
$737 Vol.
5%
20-25
$290 Vol.
2%
25-30
$4,266 Vol.
4%
30+
$298 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping daily counts at low single-digit levels as of early September 2026.** Recent tracking data show 7-day averages near 4 arrivals—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline of ~74 daily—reflecting persistent risks from IRGC route controls, attacks on non-compliant vessels, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and operator avoidance. With the conflict entering its seventh month and no durable reopening agreement in place, trader consensus reflected in the 48% implied probability for 5-10 ships and 37% for 0-5 aligns with sustained low throughput. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in U.S.-Iran talks, sanctions enforcement, or further kinetic incidents that could alter routing or insurance availability before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Volume
$13,688Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping daily counts at low single-digit levels as of early September 2026.** Recent tracking data show 7-day averages near 4 arrivals—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline of ~74 daily—reflecting persistent risks from IRGC route controls, attacks on non-compliant vessels, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and operator avoidance. With the conflict entering its seventh month and no durable reopening agreement in place, trader consensus reflected in the 48% implied probability for 5-10 ships and 37% for 0-5 aligns with sustained low throughput. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in U.S.-Iran talks, sanctions enforcement, or further kinetic incidents that could alter routing or insurance availability before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$13,688Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 27, 2026, 6:58 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions continue to suppress commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping daily counts at low single-digit levels as of early September 2026.** Recent tracking data show 7-day averages near 4 arrivals—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline of ~74 daily—reflecting persistent risks from IRGC route controls, attacks on non-compliant vessels, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and operator avoidance. With the conflict entering its seventh month and no durable reopening agreement in place, trader consensus reflected in the 48% implied probability for 5-10 ships and 37% for 0-5 aligns with sustained low throughput. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in U.S.-Iran talks, sanctions enforcement, or further kinetic incidents that could alter routing or insurance availability before month-end resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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