Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated following the collapse of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, which briefly allowed limited commercial transits after months of conflict that began in late February. Iranian forces have conducted repeated strikes on vessels using unauthorized routes, issued turn-back orders, and asserted control over all lanes, while the United States reimposed a naval blockade and conducted airstrikes on Iranian military targets in July. Ongoing risks from mines, drone and missile attacks, and sanctions have kept overall traffic far below pre-conflict levels of roughly 130 vessels per day, with periods of sharply reduced or functionally suspended outbound tanker movements. Traders monitor any escalation in kinetic exchanges or diplomatic signals that could produce a complete daily shutdown of transits.