Recent U.S. sanctions relief, expanded general licenses for exporters including Chevron and traders like Vitol and Trafigura, and PDVSA fiscal reforms have driven Venezuelan crude output higher, reaching roughly 1.12–1.25 million barrels per day in July–August 2026 from under 1 million late last year. Government targets aim for 1.245 million barrels per day by end-August and 1.4 million by year-end, supported by increased diluent imports and roughly 500,000 barrels per day now flowing to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Independent estimates from Rystad and Kpler project more modest gains near 1.3 million barrels per day by December, limited by rig availability, aging infrastructure, and heavy-crude logistics. Market-implied odds reflect these operational constraints alongside potential further policy easing or investment inflows as key swing factors for sustained 2026 levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$182,809 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
1.2m
66%
1.3m
16%
1.4m
8%
1.5m
5%
1.7m
3%
2m
2%
$182,809 Vol.
1.2m
$10,620 Vol.
66%
1.3m
$7,790 Vol.
16%
1.4m
$19,774 Vol.
8%
1.5m
$9,753 Vol.
5%
1.7m
$58,908 Vol.
3%
2m
$16,326 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. sanctions relief, expanded general licenses for exporters including Chevron and traders like Vitol and Trafigura, and PDVSA fiscal reforms have driven Venezuelan crude output higher, reaching roughly 1.12–1.25 million barrels per day in July–August 2026 from under 1 million late last year. Government targets aim for 1.245 million barrels per day by end-August and 1.4 million by year-end, supported by increased diluent imports and roughly 500,000 barrels per day now flowing to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Independent estimates from Rystad and Kpler project more modest gains near 1.3 million barrels per day by December, limited by rig availability, aging infrastructure, and heavy-crude logistics. Market-implied odds reflect these operational constraints alongside potential further policy easing or investment inflows as key swing factors for sustained 2026 levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$182,809End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Recent U.S. sanctions relief, expanded general licenses for exporters including Chevron and traders like Vitol and Trafigura, and PDVSA fiscal reforms have driven Venezuelan crude output higher, reaching roughly 1.12–1.25 million barrels per day in July–August 2026 from under 1 million late last year. Government targets aim for 1.245 million barrels per day by end-August and 1.4 million by year-end, supported by increased diluent imports and roughly 500,000 barrels per day now flowing to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Independent estimates from Rystad and Kpler project more modest gains near 1.3 million barrels per day by December, limited by rig availability, aging infrastructure, and heavy-crude logistics. Market-implied odds reflect these operational constraints alongside potential further policy easing or investment inflows as key swing factors for sustained 2026 levels.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row.
This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$182,809End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. sanctions relief, expanded general licenses for exporters including Chevron and traders like Vitol and Trafigura, and PDVSA fiscal reforms have driven Venezuelan crude output higher, reaching roughly 1.12–1.25 million barrels per day in July–August 2026 from under 1 million late last year. Government targets aim for 1.245 million barrels per day by end-August and 1.4 million by year-end, supported by increased diluent imports and roughly 500,000 barrels per day now flowing to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries. Independent estimates from Rystad and Kpler project more modest gains near 1.3 million barrels per day by December, limited by rig availability, aging infrastructure, and heavy-crude logistics. Market-implied odds reflect these operational constraints alongside potential further policy easing or investment inflows as key swing factors for sustained 2026 levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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