Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 2026 capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking charges to which they have pleaded not guilty, with a trial scheduled for June 2027. Defense efforts to dismiss the case on head-of-state immunity and capture legality grounds are pending, while Venezuela’s interim government under Delcy Rodríguez pursues U.S.-backed energy agreements and domestic prisoner releases. Recent photos posted from detention in late August underscore his ongoing confinement, with trader assessments reflecting the extended pretrial timeline, limited near-term diplomatic off-ramps, and uncertainty over any potential plea or negotiated resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,689,156 Vol.
Jan 30, 2026
December 31
7%
$2,689,156 Vol.
December 31
$293,707 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 2026 capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking charges to which they have pleaded not guilty, with a trial scheduled for June 2027. Defense efforts to dismiss the case on head-of-state immunity and capture legality grounds are pending, while Venezuela’s interim government under Delcy Rodríguez pursues U.S.-backed energy agreements and domestic prisoner releases. Recent photos posted from detention in late August underscore his ongoing confinement, with trader assessments reflecting the extended pretrial timeline, limited near-term diplomatic off-ramps, and uncertainty over any potential plea or negotiated resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,689,156End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 2026 capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking charges to which they have pleaded not guilty, with a trial scheduled for June 2027. Defense efforts to dismiss the case on head-of-state immunity and capture legality grounds are pending, while Venezuela’s interim government under Delcy Rodríguez pursues U.S.-backed energy agreements and domestic prisoner releases. Recent photos posted from detention in late August underscore his ongoing confinement, with trader assessments reflecting the extended pretrial timeline, limited near-term diplomatic off-ramps, and uncertainty over any potential plea or negotiated resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,689,156End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn since his January 2026 capture by American forces during a military operation in Caracas. He and his wife face narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking charges to which they have pleaded not guilty, with a trial scheduled for June 2027. Defense efforts to dismiss the case on head-of-state immunity and capture legality grounds are pending, while Venezuela’s interim government under Delcy Rodríguez pursues U.S.-backed energy agreements and domestic prisoner releases. Recent photos posted from detention in late August underscore his ongoing confinement, with trader assessments reflecting the extended pretrial timeline, limited near-term diplomatic off-ramps, and uncertainty over any potential plea or negotiated resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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