Trump has repeatedly stated that María Corina Machado lacks sufficient domestic support or respect within Venezuela to lead, a position articulated publicly after the January 2026 U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro. The administration has instead prioritized engagement with acting President Delcy Rodríguez, commending her steps to open the oil sector to U.S. investment and maintaining diplomatic and economic channels with the interim government. Multiple meetings between Trump and Machado, including her presentation of a Nobel medal, produced no shift in this stance, while U.S. officials have rejected her return requests and described related efforts as distractions. These patterns, alongside uncertain election timing and Machado’s announced plans to seek the presidency by late 2026, underpin the trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability against an endorsement.