Traders assign a 99.7% probability that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not hold a bilateral meeting by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any scheduled summit and longstanding Russian conditions for direct talks. Putin has repeatedly stated that a leaders' meeting would occur only to finalize an already negotiated agreement, not to initiate negotiations, a position reinforced after Zelenskyy's June 2026 public proposal. Ongoing trilateral discussions involving the United States have produced limited progress on territorial issues, security guarantees, and ceasefires, with recent reports indicating stalled momentum and no near-term breakthrough. The extremely narrow remaining window further reduces the scope for last-minute diplomatic scheduling. A sudden reversal would require an unprecedented shift in Russian positioning or an emergency convening within days, both viewed as highly improbable given current diplomatic patterns.