**Strained U.S.-Canada relations amid ongoing trade disputes and annexation rhetoric have fueled a large public petition with over 200,000 signatures calling for Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s removal, yet Canadian officials have given no indication of formal action.** The non-binding petition, scheduled for parliamentary presentation in fall 2026 with a required government response within 45 days, faces steep institutional and diplomatic hurdles under the Vienna Convention framework. No other countries have signaled active expulsion plans, and ambassador expulsions remain rare diplomatic escalations typically reserved for acute crises. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring “No” at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting the gap between public pressure and official policy shifts before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
22% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Strained U.S.-Canada relations amid ongoing trade disputes and annexation rhetoric have fueled a large public petition with over 200,000 signatures calling for Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s removal, yet Canadian officials have given no indication of formal action.** The non-binding petition, scheduled for parliamentary presentation in fall 2026 with a required government response within 45 days, faces steep institutional and diplomatic hurdles under the Vienna Convention framework. No other countries have signaled active expulsion plans, and ambassador expulsions remain rare diplomatic escalations typically reserved for acute crises. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring “No” at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting the gap between public pressure and official policy shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Strained U.S.-Canada relations amid ongoing trade disputes and annexation rhetoric have fueled a large public petition with over 200,000 signatures calling for Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s removal, yet Canadian officials have given no indication of formal action.** The non-binding petition, scheduled for parliamentary presentation in fall 2026 with a required government response within 45 days, faces steep institutional and diplomatic hurdles under the Vienna Convention framework. No other countries have signaled active expulsion plans, and ambassador expulsions remain rare diplomatic escalations typically reserved for acute crises. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring “No” at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting the gap between public pressure and official policy shifts before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Strained U.S.-Canada relations amid ongoing trade disputes and annexation rhetoric have fueled a large public petition with over 200,000 signatures calling for Ambassador Pete Hoekstra’s removal, yet Canadian officials have given no indication of formal action.** The non-binding petition, scheduled for parliamentary presentation in fall 2026 with a required government response within 45 days, faces steep institutional and diplomatic hurdles under the Vienna Convention framework. No other countries have signaled active expulsion plans, and ambassador expulsions remain rare diplomatic escalations typically reserved for acute crises. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring “No” at 76.5% implied probability, reflecting the gap between public pressure and official policy shifts before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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