US naval escort operations amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on which nations will transit warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31. With roughly 20 US warships—including carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers—already active in the Gulf of Oman to protect commercial traffic, the US position carries near-certain implied probability. These operations have facilitated daily movements of up to 10 million barrels of oil via the southern (Omani) route despite Iranian strikes on vessels, directly influencing WTI crude benchmarks, tanker charter rates, and marine insurance premiums. Other nations show limited recent activity, with historical coalition calls from the Trump administration yielding no confirmed additional deployments in the final week. Proximity to resolution heightens sensitivity to any last-minute multinational announcements or escalations that could alter aggregated trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
$265,690 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
US
4%
Italy
1%
France
1%
Greece
1%
Australia
1%
UK
1%
Netherlands
<1%
Germany
<1%
$265,690 Vol.
US
$41,549 Vol.
4%
Italy
$6,201 Vol.
1%
France
$56,743 Vol.
1%
Greece
$3,907 Vol.
1%
Australia
$1,263 Vol.
1%
UK
$21,065 Vol.
1%
Netherlands
$45,316 Vol.
<1%
Germany
$89,646 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval escort operations amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on which nations will transit warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31. With roughly 20 US warships—including carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers—already active in the Gulf of Oman to protect commercial traffic, the US position carries near-certain implied probability. These operations have facilitated daily movements of up to 10 million barrels of oil via the southern (Omani) route despite Iranian strikes on vessels, directly influencing WTI crude benchmarks, tanker charter rates, and marine insurance premiums. Other nations show limited recent activity, with historical coalition calls from the Trump administration yielding no confirmed additional deployments in the final week. Proximity to resolution heightens sensitivity to any last-minute multinational announcements or escalations that could alter aggregated trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$265,690End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval escort operations amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on which nations will transit warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31. With roughly 20 US warships—including carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers—already active in the Gulf of Oman to protect commercial traffic, the US position carries near-certain implied probability. These operations have facilitated daily movements of up to 10 million barrels of oil via the southern (Omani) route despite Iranian strikes on vessels, directly influencing WTI crude benchmarks, tanker charter rates, and marine insurance premiums. Other nations show limited recent activity, with historical coalition calls from the Trump administration yielding no confirmed additional deployments in the final week. Proximity to resolution heightens sensitivity to any last-minute multinational announcements or escalations that could alter aggregated trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$265,690End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US naval escort operations amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment on which nations will transit warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31. With roughly 20 US warships—including carriers Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush plus escort destroyers—already active in the Gulf of Oman to protect commercial traffic, the US position carries near-certain implied probability. These operations have facilitated daily movements of up to 10 million barrels of oil via the southern (Omani) route despite Iranian strikes on vessels, directly influencing WTI crude benchmarks, tanker charter rates, and marine insurance premiums. Other nations show limited recent activity, with historical coalition calls from the Trump administration yielding no confirmed additional deployments in the final week. Proximity to resolution heightens sensitivity to any last-minute multinational announcements or escalations that could alter aggregated trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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