What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

$728,805 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$201,044 Vol.

16%

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

$122,434 Vol.

14%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$105,352 Vol.

13%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

$122,958 Vol.

12%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

$119,470 Vol.

12%

Enriched Uranium Surrender

$57,547 Vol.

$728,805 Vol.

Iran Reconstruction Funding

$201,044 Vol.

16%

Dilution of Iran's Uranium

$122,434 Vol.

14%

1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium

$105,352 Vol.

13%

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)

$122,958 Vol.

12%

≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)

$119,470 Vol.

12%

Enriched Uranium Surrender

$57,547 Vol.

This market resolves to "Yes" if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a non-Iranian fund or substantive funding mechanism for Iranian reconstruction or economic development, or creates an obligation for non-Iranian actors to commit funding to such reconstruction or development, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to "No." The instrument must either directly establish a fund or substantive funding mechanism the purpose of which is to hold or collect, and distribute funds used in the reconstruction or economic development of Iran, or establish a binding obligation for actors not under the control of Iran to commit funding to the reconstruction or economic development of Iran. A substantive funding mechanism refers to a specifically defined structure or revenue source that channels non-Iranian funds toward Iranian reconstruction, such as the establishment of a Strait of Hormuz transit toll with proceeds designated for that purpose. Commitments to establish a plan for funding Iranian reconstruction, or to seek funds, which do not create a fund or substantive funding mechanism or establish a funding obligation for a non-Iranian actor, do not qualify. The release of Iranian frozen assets, or the withdrawal of economic sanctions on Iran will not qualify. The funding must come, in whole or in part, from sources other than Iran; a mechanism or obligation funded solely by Iran, or solely by released Iranian assets, does not qualify. The funding need not come from the United States; funding from third-party entities, established as part of the instrument, will qualify. The establishment of a non-Iranian fund or substantive funding mechanism for, or an obligation for non-Iranian actors to commit funding to, Iranian reconstruction or economic development must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to establish such a fund or mechanism, or a presently-agreed obligation to commit funds, will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dollar amount, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a fund in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used. This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify. The instrument must require the dilution to occur within Iran, or for the diluted material to be returned to Iranian control, having been dilated or downblended elsewhere. Iran need not carry out the downblending or dilution itself; a commitment for a third-party entity (e.g., the IAEA) to perform it will qualify. A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iranian territory does not qualify, unless the terms of the instrument specifically require the uranium to be diluted and the resulting diluted material be returned to Iran’s possession or control. The dilution or downblending of Iranian enriched uranium must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to dilute Iranian uranium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dilution method, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a dilution requirement in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used. This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that creates a moratorium on all enrichment of uranium for Iran for a period of at least one year has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The moratorium must be for a period of at least one year. A commitment to end enrichment permanently will qualify. A moratorium with no specified end date will qualify unless explicitly framed as short-term, provisional, or temporary (e.g., a commitment not to enrich uranium while the exact implementation details of the instrument are being finalized would not qualify). A moratorium committed to for less than one year will not qualify, even if framed as permitting extension. The commitment must specifically communicate the suspension or end of all Iranian enrichment of uranium for any purpose. Commitments which do not explicitly reference such a moratorium (e.g., a commitment to “maintain the status quo”), will not qualify. Restrictions on the purity or level to which Iran may enrich uranium, or commitments only to dilute, down-blend, surrender, or eliminate Iran’s uranium stockpile, will not qualify. The commitment must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to implement such a moratorium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the exact implementation schedule, remain subject to future arrangements (e.g., an unconditional commitment to a qualifying moratorium to be implemented in sequence with already-agreed-upon reciprocal commitments from the United States would qualify). A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to agree upon a moratorium in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used. This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a specific, percentage cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, committed to for at least one year, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The instrument must specifically include a percentage cap that operates as a general ceiling on the level to which Iran may enrich uranium for any purpose. Vague, or non-specific language regarding the level of Iranian uranium enrichment which does not establish a specific percentage-cap ceiling on all Iranian enrichment (e.g., “lower levels”, “civilian grade”, “maintain the status quo”) will not qualify. Caps that directly mandate a specific percentage cap on enrichment through reference to a publicly-recognized benchmark percentage (e.g., JCPOA-levels), however, will qualify, even if they do not specifically reference the relevant numeric percentage itself. An Iranian commitment to end all enrichment of uranium qualifies as a cap, as it establishes a 0% cap on Iranian uranium enrichment. A qualifying enrichment cap must be committed for a period of at least one year. A permanent enrichment cap will qualify. An enrichment cap with no specified end date will qualify unless explicitly framed as short-term, provisional, or temporary (e.g., a commitment not to enrich uranium while the exact implementation terms of the instrument are being finalized would not qualify). A cap committed to for less than one year will not qualify, even if framed as permitting extension. The enrichment cap must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to such an enrichment cap will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or specific monitoring requirements, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to agree upon an enrichment cap in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used. This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a percentage cap of 5% or less on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, committed to for at least one year, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The instrument must specifically include a 5% or lower percentage cap that operates as a general ceiling on the level to which Iran may enrich uranium for any purpose. Vague, or non-specific language regarding the level of Iranian uranium enrichment which does not establish a specific percentage cap on all Iranian enrichment (e.g., “lower levels”, “civilian grade”, “maintain the status quo”) will not qualify. Caps which directly mandate a precise 5% or lower percentage cap on Iranian enrichment through reference to a publicly-recognized benchmark percentage (e.g., JCPOA-levels), however, will qualify, even if they do not specifically reference the relevant numeric percentage itself. An Iranian commitment to end all enrichment of uranium qualifies as a cap, as it establishes a 0% cap on Iranian uranium enrichment. A qualifying enrichment cap must be committed for a period of at least one year. A permanent enrichment cap will qualify. An enrichment cap with no specified end date will qualify unless explicitly framed as short-term, provisional, or temporary (e.g., a commitment not to enrich uranium while the exact implementation terms of the instrument are being finalized would not qualify). A cap committed to for less than one year will not qualify, even if framed as permitting extension. The enrichment cap must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to such an enrichment cap will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or specific monitoring requirements, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to agree upon an enrichment cap in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used. This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that commits Iran to surrender any quantity of enriched uranium has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must explicitly commit Iran to the transfer of a portion or all of its enriched uranium stockpile outside of Iranian territory and into the custody of an entity other than Iran. Sales, or other arrangements in which Iran is compensated for such a transfer, will qualify. The commitment must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A present and definite commitment to a qualifying transfer of enriched uranium will qualify even if the related technical or procedural details (e.g., the recipient or custodian, the transportation arrangements, or the implementation schedule) have not been finalized. A conditional commitment, the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a transfer in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify.

The instrument must require the dilution to occur within Iran, or for the diluted material to be returned to Iranian control, having been dilated or downblended elsewhere. Iran need not carry out the downblending or dilution itself; a commitment for a third-party entity (e.g., the IAEA) to perform it will qualify. A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iranian territory does not qualify, unless the terms of the instrument specifically require the uranium to be diluted and the resulting diluted material be returned to Iran’s possession or control.

The dilution or downblending of Iranian enriched uranium must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to dilute Iranian uranium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dilution method, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a dilution requirement in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify.

Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.

If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including:

(i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument;
(ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries;
(iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or
(iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument.

Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies.

An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied.

Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.

Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Volume

$728,805

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Market Opened

Jun 24, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify. The instrument must require the dilution to occur within Iran, or for the diluted material to be returned to Iranian control, having been dilated or downblended elsewhere. Iran need not carry out the downblending or dilution itself; a commitment for a third-party entity (e.g., the IAEA) to perform it will qualify. A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iranian territory does not qualify, unless the terms of the instrument specifically require the uranium to be diluted and the resulting diluted material be returned to Iran’s possession or control. The dilution or downblending of Iranian enriched uranium must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to dilute Iranian uranium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dilution method, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a dilution requirement in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.

Volume

$728,805

End Date

Dec 31, 2026

Market Opened

Jun 24, 2026, 11:18 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must provide for any quantity of enriched uranium held by Iran to be downblended or diluted to a lower enrichment level. The establishment of an enrichment cap or an enrichment moratorium, without a commitment to downblend or dilute already enriched uranium, will not qualify. The instrument must require the dilution to occur within Iran, or for the diluted material to be returned to Iranian control, having been dilated or downblended elsewhere. Iran need not carry out the downblending or dilution itself; a commitment for a third-party entity (e.g., the IAEA) to perform it will qualify. A commitment to remove enriched uranium from Iranian territory does not qualify, unless the terms of the instrument specifically require the uranium to be diluted and the resulting diluted material be returned to Iran’s possession or control. The dilution or downblending of Iranian enriched uranium must be expressed as a presently-agreed obligation to be implemented. A presently-agreed obligation to dilute Iranian uranium will qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the implementation schedule or exact dilution method, remain subject to future arrangements. A conditional commitment the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument (e.g., a commitment to negotiate a dilution requirement in a future agreement) will not qualify. A commitment explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation, will not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including: (i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument; (ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries; (iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or (iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument. Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies. An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied. Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iran Reconstruction Funding" at 16%, followed by "Dilution of Iran's Uranium" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" has generated $728.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" is "Iran Reconstruction Funding" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dilution of Iran's Uranium" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $728.8K traded on “What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 16¢ for "Iran Reconstruction Funding" in the "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 16% chance that "Iran Reconstruction Funding" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 16¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 84¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?" market has a growing discussion of 8 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

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