Russia's battlefield momentum and refusal to accept anything short of its core demands on territory and Ukrainian neutrality continue to anchor trader consensus against the full peace combo by year-end. Recent U.S. envoy meetings with Putin produced only a limited three-day pause on capital strikes and no broader ceasefire, with Moscow citing steady advances and the need to address all "root causes." Ukraine has shown no sign of altering its stance on NATO aspirations or ceding ground, creating a matchup dynamic where both sides maintain firm defensive postures. This sustained stalemate, absent major roster shifts or injury-like setbacks to either position, leaves the implied probability of the complete resolution criteria heavily discounted.