Recent polling shows the SPD closing a narrow gap with the AfD ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the latest Insa survey placing the SPD at 35% and the AfD at 37%. This momentum, driven by Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and appeals to centrist and Green voters, supports trader expectations of roughly 26-29 seats for the SPD under proportional representation with the 5% threshold. Other parties remain fragmented, with the Left near 10%, the CDU at 7%, and the Greens hovering at 5%, limiting major shifts in seat distribution. The market’s heavy weighting toward the 26-29 range reflects these final-week trends and the structural barriers to larger SPD gains or sharp declines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated26-29 65%
22-25 19%
30-33 12.2%
18-21 8.4%
$56,767 Vol.
$56,767 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<18
1%
18-21
8%
22-25
19%
26-29
65%
30-33
12%
34+
2%
26-29 65%
22-25 19%
30-33 12.2%
18-21 8.4%
$56,767 Vol.
$56,767 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<18
$2,347 Vol.
1%
18-21
$2,460 Vol.
8%
22-25
$22,444 Vol.
19%
26-29
$20,478 Vol.
65%
30-33
$6,778 Vol.
12%
34+
$2,260 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling shows the SPD closing a narrow gap with the AfD ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the latest Insa survey placing the SPD at 35% and the AfD at 37%. This momentum, driven by Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and appeals to centrist and Green voters, supports trader expectations of roughly 26-29 seats for the SPD under proportional representation with the 5% threshold. Other parties remain fragmented, with the Left near 10%, the CDU at 7%, and the Greens hovering at 5%, limiting major shifts in seat distribution. The market’s heavy weighting toward the 26-29 range reflects these final-week trends and the structural barriers to larger SPD gains or sharp declines.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Volume
$56,767End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling shows the SPD closing a narrow gap with the AfD ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the latest Insa survey placing the SPD at 35% and the AfD at 37%. This momentum, driven by Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and appeals to centrist and Green voters, supports trader expectations of roughly 26-29 seats for the SPD under proportional representation with the 5% threshold. Other parties remain fragmented, with the Left near 10%, the CDU at 7%, and the Greens hovering at 5%, limiting major shifts in seat distribution. The market’s heavy weighting toward the 26-29 range reflects these final-week trends and the structural barriers to larger SPD gains or sharp declines.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$56,767End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the SPD closing a narrow gap with the AfD ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the latest Insa survey placing the SPD at 35% and the AfD at 37%. This momentum, driven by Minister President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and appeals to centrist and Green voters, supports trader expectations of roughly 26-29 seats for the SPD under proportional representation with the 5% threshold. Other parties remain fragmented, with the Left near 10%, the CDU at 7%, and the Greens hovering at 5%, limiting major shifts in seat distribution. The market’s heavy weighting toward the 26-29 range reflects these final-week trends and the structural barriers to larger SPD gains or sharp declines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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