US sanctions, including the longstanding trade embargo and 2026 executive orders imposing fuel restrictions and targeting third-party suppliers, continue to bar US-headquartered companies like McDonald’s from commercial operations in Cuba without rare OFAC approvals. Cuba’s June 2026 policy shift allowing foreign franchises has not altered these constraints, as the island faces acute fuel shortages, blackouts, and capital flight that deter new investment. Official statements from Cuban leaders have acknowledged interest in chains but produced no concrete licensing or partnership signals for American brands. Traders price the “No” outcome at 93 percent because the embargo’s enforcement under the current administration, combined with Cuba’s economic conditions, presents structural barriers unlikely to lift before year-end absent major diplomatic shifts.