**Persistent late-summer warmth and high humidity are anchoring trader expectations for an overnight low in the upper 70s on September 11.** Official National Weather Service forecasts for Houston project a Thursday night low near 78°F and a Friday night low in the upper 70s, with partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and only isolated thunderstorm chances that are unlikely to produce meaningful cooling. These conditions reflect the ongoing influence of Gulf moisture and a stable subtropical air mass, keeping minimum temperatures well above the long-term September 11 average of roughly 75°F. Model consensus and recent observations reinforce this range: current dew points near 75–77°F and heat indices exceeding 100°F during the day limit nocturnal radiational cooling. The market-implied probabilities—46.5% for 76–77°F and 35.5% for 78–79°F—closely track these forecasts, while lower-probability tails (e.g., 69°F or below or 88°F+) reflect the low likelihood of either an unexpected cold surge or an unseasonably warm night. No major frontal systems or model shifts are expected before resolution, supporting the concentrated trader sentiment around the upper 70s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 11?
69°F or below 49%
88°F or higher 49%
76-77°F 48%
70-71°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
69°F or below
49%
70-71°F
39%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
23%
76-77°F
48%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
23%
82-83°F
39%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
39%
88°F or higher
49%
69°F or below 49%
88°F or higher 49%
76-77°F 48%
70-71°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
49%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
39%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
18%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
23%
76-77°F
$31 Vol.
48%
78-79°F
$71 Vol.
21%
80-81°F
$48 Vol.
23%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
39%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
39%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
39%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent late-summer warmth and high humidity are anchoring trader expectations for an overnight low in the upper 70s on September 11.** Official National Weather Service forecasts for Houston project a Thursday night low near 78°F and a Friday night low in the upper 70s, with partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and only isolated thunderstorm chances that are unlikely to produce meaningful cooling. These conditions reflect the ongoing influence of Gulf moisture and a stable subtropical air mass, keeping minimum temperatures well above the long-term September 11 average of roughly 75°F.
Model consensus and recent observations reinforce this range: current dew points near 75–77°F and heat indices exceeding 100°F during the day limit nocturnal radiational cooling. The market-implied probabilities—46.5% for 76–77°F and 35.5% for 78–79°F—closely track these forecasts, while lower-probability tails (e.g., 69°F or below or 88°F+) reflect the low likelihood of either an unexpected cold surge or an unseasonably warm night. No major frontal systems or model shifts are expected before resolution, supporting the concentrated trader sentiment around the upper 70s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$150End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent late-summer warmth and high humidity are anchoring trader expectations for an overnight low in the upper 70s on September 11.** Official National Weather Service forecasts for Houston project a Thursday night low near 78°F and a Friday night low in the upper 70s, with partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and only isolated thunderstorm chances that are unlikely to produce meaningful cooling. These conditions reflect the ongoing influence of Gulf moisture and a stable subtropical air mass, keeping minimum temperatures well above the long-term September 11 average of roughly 75°F.
Model consensus and recent observations reinforce this range: current dew points near 75–77°F and heat indices exceeding 100°F during the day limit nocturnal radiational cooling. The market-implied probabilities—46.5% for 76–77°F and 35.5% for 78–79°F—closely track these forecasts, while lower-probability tails (e.g., 69°F or below or 88°F+) reflect the low likelihood of either an unexpected cold surge or an unseasonably warm night. No major frontal systems or model shifts are expected before resolution, supporting the concentrated trader sentiment around the upper 70s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$150End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent late-summer warmth and high humidity are anchoring trader expectations for an overnight low in the upper 70s on September 11.** Official National Weather Service forecasts for Houston project a Thursday night low near 78°F and a Friday night low in the upper 70s, with partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and only isolated thunderstorm chances that are unlikely to produce meaningful cooling. These conditions reflect the ongoing influence of Gulf moisture and a stable subtropical air mass, keeping minimum temperatures well above the long-term September 11 average of roughly 75°F. Model consensus and recent observations reinforce this range: current dew points near 75–77°F and heat indices exceeding 100°F during the day limit nocturnal radiational cooling. The market-implied probabilities—46.5% for 76–77°F and 35.5% for 78–79°F—closely track these forecasts, while lower-probability tails (e.g., 69°F or below or 88°F+) reflect the low likelihood of either an unexpected cold surge or an unseasonably warm night. No major frontal systems or model shifts are expected before resolution, supporting the concentrated trader sentiment around the upper 70s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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