President Lee Jae-myung’s position remains secure through 2026 due to the Democratic Party’s supermajority in the National Assembly, which controls the initiation of any impeachment process requiring a two-thirds vote. Local elections in June 2026 delivered further gains for the ruling party across most metropolitan and provincial races, reinforcing legislative alignment despite isolated controversies such as ballot shortages. A June petition for impeachment gathered over 100,000 signatures citing prior criminal cases, yet it advanced no further given the party’s dominance. Approval ratings have declined to the low-to-mid 40s amid debates over tax policy and prosecutorial reforms, but these shifts lack the scale or triggering event—such as a constitutional crisis—needed to overcome structural barriers. Traders therefore assign low probability to removal before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
12% chance
$20,305 Vol.
$20,305 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
$20,305 Vol.
$20,305 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.President Lee Jae-myung’s position remains secure through 2026 due to the Democratic Party’s supermajority in the National Assembly, which controls the initiation of any impeachment process requiring a two-thirds vote. Local elections in June 2026 delivered further gains for the ruling party across most metropolitan and provincial races, reinforcing legislative alignment despite isolated controversies such as ballot shortages. A June petition for impeachment gathered over 100,000 signatures citing prior criminal cases, yet it advanced no further given the party’s dominance. Approval ratings have declined to the low-to-mid 40s amid debates over tax policy and prosecutorial reforms, but these shifts lack the scale or triggering event—such as a constitutional crisis—needed to overcome structural barriers. Traders therefore assign low probability to removal before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$20,305End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.President Lee Jae-myung’s position remains secure through 2026 due to the Democratic Party’s supermajority in the National Assembly, which controls the initiation of any impeachment process requiring a two-thirds vote. Local elections in June 2026 delivered further gains for the ruling party across most metropolitan and provincial races, reinforcing legislative alignment despite isolated controversies such as ballot shortages. A June petition for impeachment gathered over 100,000 signatures citing prior criminal cases, yet it advanced no further given the party’s dominance. Approval ratings have declined to the low-to-mid 40s amid debates over tax policy and prosecutorial reforms, but these shifts lack the scale or triggering event—such as a constitutional crisis—needed to overcome structural barriers. Traders therefore assign low probability to removal before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of South Korea, Lee Jae-myung, is formally impeached by the South Korean National Assembly by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the National Assembly propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lee Jae-myung, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the South Korean government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$20,305End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Lee Jae-myung’s position remains secure through 2026 due to the Democratic Party’s supermajority in the National Assembly, which controls the initiation of any impeachment process requiring a two-thirds vote. Local elections in June 2026 delivered further gains for the ruling party across most metropolitan and provincial races, reinforcing legislative alignment despite isolated controversies such as ballot shortages. A June petition for impeachment gathered over 100,000 signatures citing prior criminal cases, yet it advanced no further given the party’s dominance. Approval ratings have declined to the low-to-mid 40s amid debates over tax policy and prosecutorial reforms, but these shifts lack the scale or triggering event—such as a constitutional crisis—needed to overcome structural barriers. Traders therefore assign low probability to removal before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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