Iran’s enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of further strikes or seizures. On August 24, Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged violations of transit rules and warned that violators or vessels involved in ship-to-ship transfers face fines, detention, or cargo confiscation. This followed the August 17 expiration of a U.S.-Iran memorandum and confirmed incidents including a projectile strike on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity that killed one crew member and the boarding/seizure of the tanker Amara. U.S. responses have included renewed sanctions threats, naval interdictions, and statements on mine clearance, while Iranian oil exports persist primarily toward China. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter escalation risks before the September 30 resolution window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$185,989 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
August 17
50%
August 18
37%
August 23
3%
August 24
51%
August 25
22%
August 26
26%
August 27
32%
August 28
25%
August 29
17%
August 30
25%
August 31
29%
$185,989 Vol.
August 17
$5,546 Vol.
50%
August 18
$2,542 Vol.
37%
August 23
$4,030 Vol.
3%
August 24
$10,406 Vol.
51%
August 25
$901 Vol.
22%
August 26
$1,173 Vol.
26%
August 27
$558 Vol.
32%
August 28
$1,517 Vol.
25%
August 29
$2,759 Vol.
17%
August 30
$834 Vol.
25%
August 31
$3,669 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of further strikes or seizures. On August 24, Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged violations of transit rules and warned that violators or vessels involved in ship-to-ship transfers face fines, detention, or cargo confiscation. This followed the August 17 expiration of a U.S.-Iran memorandum and confirmed incidents including a projectile strike on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity that killed one crew member and the boarding/seizure of the tanker Amara. U.S. responses have included renewed sanctions threats, naval interdictions, and statements on mine clearance, while Iranian oil exports persist primarily toward China. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter escalation risks before the September 30 resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$185,989End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of further strikes or seizures. On August 24, Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged violations of transit rules and warned that violators or vessels involved in ship-to-ship transfers face fines, detention, or cargo confiscation. This followed the August 17 expiration of a U.S.-Iran memorandum and confirmed incidents including a projectile strike on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity that killed one crew member and the boarding/seizure of the tanker Amara. U.S. responses have included renewed sanctions threats, naval interdictions, and statements on mine clearance, while Iranian oil exports persist primarily toward China. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter escalation risks before the September 30 resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$185,989End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s enforcement actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape trader assessments of further strikes or seizures. On August 24, Iranian authorities blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged violations of transit rules and warned that violators or vessels involved in ship-to-ship transfers face fines, detention, or cargo confiscation. This followed the August 17 expiration of a U.S.-Iran memorandum and confirmed incidents including a projectile strike on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity that killed one crew member and the boarding/seizure of the tanker Amara. U.S. responses have included renewed sanctions threats, naval interdictions, and statements on mine clearance, while Iranian oil exports persist primarily toward China. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks could alter escalation risks before the September 30 resolution window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions