Internal factional tensions within Iran's post-2026 leadership transition continue to shape trader assessments of coup attempt odds. Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" since July, alleging efforts to sideline the absent Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, weaken parliament and revolutionary institutions, and empower the Supreme National Security Council through U.S. truce negotiations. These claims surfaced prominently around Ali Khamenei's funeral and have persisted amid a fragile ceasefire. In mid-August, the judiciary chief warned of risks from coups, sedition, and infiltration, while reports noted a military-aligned group consolidating visible authority with Mojtaba remaining out of public view. No executions of coordinated overthrow attempts by state actors have been independently confirmed, keeping implied probabilities modest despite the elevated rhetoric and economic pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,122,921 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,122,921 Vol.
December 31
$81,696 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional tensions within Iran's post-2026 leadership transition continue to shape trader assessments of coup attempt odds. Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" since July, alleging efforts to sideline the absent Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, weaken parliament and revolutionary institutions, and empower the Supreme National Security Council through U.S. truce negotiations. These claims surfaced prominently around Ali Khamenei's funeral and have persisted amid a fragile ceasefire. In mid-August, the judiciary chief warned of risks from coups, sedition, and infiltration, while reports noted a military-aligned group consolidating visible authority with Mojtaba remaining out of public view. No executions of coordinated overthrow attempts by state actors have been independently confirmed, keeping implied probabilities modest despite the elevated rhetoric and economic pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,122,921End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional tensions within Iran's post-2026 leadership transition continue to shape trader assessments of coup attempt odds. Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" since July, alleging efforts to sideline the absent Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, weaken parliament and revolutionary institutions, and empower the Supreme National Security Council through U.S. truce negotiations. These claims surfaced prominently around Ali Khamenei's funeral and have persisted amid a fragile ceasefire. In mid-August, the judiciary chief warned of risks from coups, sedition, and infiltration, while reports noted a military-aligned group consolidating visible authority with Mojtaba remaining out of public view. No executions of coordinated overthrow attempts by state actors have been independently confirmed, keeping implied probabilities modest despite the elevated rhetoric and economic pressures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,122,921End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal factional tensions within Iran's post-2026 leadership transition continue to shape trader assessments of coup attempt odds. Hardline groups, including the Paydari Front, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi of a "soft coup" or "political coup" since July, alleging efforts to sideline the absent Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, weaken parliament and revolutionary institutions, and empower the Supreme National Security Council through U.S. truce negotiations. These claims surfaced prominently around Ali Khamenei's funeral and have persisted amid a fragile ceasefire. In mid-August, the judiciary chief warned of risks from coups, sedition, and infiltration, while reports noted a military-aligned group consolidating visible authority with Mojtaba remaining out of public view. No executions of coordinated overthrow attempts by state actors have been independently confirmed, keeping implied probabilities modest despite the elevated rhetoric and economic pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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