**Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled on core nuclear issues, with no agreement to halt uranium enrichment.** The June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a 60-day (extendable) window for a final deal addressing Iran's nuclear program alongside sanctions relief and other issues, but the deadline passed in mid-August without resolution amid disputes over inspections, stockpile disposition, and enrichment limits. Iran has reaffirmed its right to enrichment for peaceful purposes and indicated that any final framework would address its nuclear needs rather than impose a full cessation. U.S. positions have emphasized zero enrichment and destruction or verified down-blending of existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision, yet public statements from both sides show persistent gaps. Recent reports note renewed U.S. sanctions pressure, Iranian warnings of responses, and technical working groups that have yet to bridge differences on verification or long-term caps. These dynamics sustain trader consensus that a public Iranian commitment to end all enrichment by year-end is unlikely, as the process favors incremental limits or extensions over outright termination within the remaining timeline. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential extensions leave room for shifts, but current impasse and historical patterns of prolonged talks point to continued resistance on this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
$1,646,292 Vol.
$1,646,292 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% chance
$1,646,292 Vol.
$1,646,292 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled on core nuclear issues, with no agreement to halt uranium enrichment.** The June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a 60-day (extendable) window for a final deal addressing Iran's nuclear program alongside sanctions relief and other issues, but the deadline passed in mid-August without resolution amid disputes over inspections, stockpile disposition, and enrichment limits.
Iran has reaffirmed its right to enrichment for peaceful purposes and indicated that any final framework would address its nuclear needs rather than impose a full cessation. U.S. positions have emphasized zero enrichment and destruction or verified down-blending of existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision, yet public statements from both sides show persistent gaps. Recent reports note renewed U.S. sanctions pressure, Iranian warnings of responses, and technical working groups that have yet to bridge differences on verification or long-term caps.
These dynamics sustain trader consensus that a public Iranian commitment to end all enrichment by year-end is unlikely, as the process favors incremental limits or extensions over outright termination within the remaining timeline. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential extensions leave room for shifts, but current impasse and historical patterns of prolonged talks point to continued resistance on this threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,646,292End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled on core nuclear issues, with no agreement to halt uranium enrichment.** The June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a 60-day (extendable) window for a final deal addressing Iran's nuclear program alongside sanctions relief and other issues, but the deadline passed in mid-August without resolution amid disputes over inspections, stockpile disposition, and enrichment limits.
Iran has reaffirmed its right to enrichment for peaceful purposes and indicated that any final framework would address its nuclear needs rather than impose a full cessation. U.S. positions have emphasized zero enrichment and destruction or verified down-blending of existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision, yet public statements from both sides show persistent gaps. Recent reports note renewed U.S. sanctions pressure, Iranian warnings of responses, and technical working groups that have yet to bridge differences on verification or long-term caps.
These dynamics sustain trader consensus that a public Iranian commitment to end all enrichment by year-end is unlikely, as the process favors incremental limits or extensions over outright termination within the remaining timeline. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential extensions leave room for shifts, but current impasse and historical patterns of prolonged talks point to continued resistance on this threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,646,292End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled on core nuclear issues, with no agreement to halt uranium enrichment.** The June 2026 memorandum of understanding established a 60-day (extendable) window for a final deal addressing Iran's nuclear program alongside sanctions relief and other issues, but the deadline passed in mid-August without resolution amid disputes over inspections, stockpile disposition, and enrichment limits. Iran has reaffirmed its right to enrichment for peaceful purposes and indicated that any final framework would address its nuclear needs rather than impose a full cessation. U.S. positions have emphasized zero enrichment and destruction or verified down-blending of existing stockpiles under IAEA supervision, yet public statements from both sides show persistent gaps. Recent reports note renewed U.S. sanctions pressure, Iranian warnings of responses, and technical working groups that have yet to bridge differences on verification or long-term caps. These dynamics sustain trader consensus that a public Iranian commitment to end all enrichment by year-end is unlikely, as the process favors incremental limits or extensions over outright termination within the remaining timeline. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential extensions leave room for shifts, but current impasse and historical patterns of prolonged talks point to continued resistance on this threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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