Recent Houthi maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, declared in July 2026, has driven a roughly 24% drop in Bab el-Mandeb transits from pre-blockade levels near 350 per week to stabilized figures around 266–273 for late July into early August. Heightened security risks, including threats of attacks and reports of vessels operating with AIS disabled, have prompted some rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and reduced traceable traffic, with one early-August week recording only 200 AIS-enabled passages—the lowest in a year. These developments, compounded by insurance concerns and selective dark transits, underpin the market's spread across bins, with 220+ transits holding the highest implied probability at 35% as traders weigh ongoing volatility against the recent plateau. Upcoming data releases on weekly volumes and any escalation in regional tensions remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
220+ 35%
160-179 20%
200-219 19%
<160 13%
$13,160 Vol.
$13,160 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
13%
160-179
20%
180-199
13%
200-219
19%
220+
35%
220+ 35%
160-179 20%
200-219 19%
<160 13%
$13,160 Vol.
$13,160 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$0 Vol.
13%
160-179
$50 Vol.
20%
180-199
$30 Vol.
13%
200-219
$12,947 Vol.
19%
220+
$133 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, declared in July 2026, has driven a roughly 24% drop in Bab el-Mandeb transits from pre-blockade levels near 350 per week to stabilized figures around 266–273 for late July into early August. Heightened security risks, including threats of attacks and reports of vessels operating with AIS disabled, have prompted some rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and reduced traceable traffic, with one early-August week recording only 200 AIS-enabled passages—the lowest in a year. These developments, compounded by insurance concerns and selective dark transits, underpin the market's spread across bins, with 220+ transits holding the highest implied probability at 35% as traders weigh ongoing volatility against the recent plateau. Upcoming data releases on weekly volumes and any escalation in regional tensions remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$13,160End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, declared in July 2026, has driven a roughly 24% drop in Bab el-Mandeb transits from pre-blockade levels near 350 per week to stabilized figures around 266–273 for late July into early August. Heightened security risks, including threats of attacks and reports of vessels operating with AIS disabled, have prompted some rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and reduced traceable traffic, with one early-August week recording only 200 AIS-enabled passages—the lowest in a year. These developments, compounded by insurance concerns and selective dark transits, underpin the market's spread across bins, with 220+ transits holding the highest implied probability at 35% as traders weigh ongoing volatility against the recent plateau. Upcoming data releases on weekly volumes and any escalation in regional tensions remain key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$13,160End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, declared in July 2026, has driven a roughly 24% drop in Bab el-Mandeb transits from pre-blockade levels near 350 per week to stabilized figures around 266–273 for late July into early August. Heightened security risks, including threats of attacks and reports of vessels operating with AIS disabled, have prompted some rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope and reduced traceable traffic, with one early-August week recording only 200 AIS-enabled passages—the lowest in a year. These developments, compounded by insurance concerns and selective dark transits, underpin the market's spread across bins, with 220+ transits holding the highest implied probability at 35% as traders weigh ongoing volatility against the recent plateau. Upcoming data releases on weekly volumes and any escalation in regional tensions remain key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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