Recent Houthi-imposed restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, in place since mid-July 2026, have reduced overall volumes from pre-blockade peaks but stabilized weekly totals in the 200–275 range, supported by continued transits from non-targeted flags, dark AIS movements, and exemptions for certain cargoes such as Chinese-linked crude. Early-August data, including daily peaks of 39–46 commodity vessels and weekly aggregates near 266–273 passages, underpin the market-implied 78% probability on 200+ transits for the August 17–23 week, with lower buckets reflecting only modest further downside from rerouting or temporary disruptions. Trader positioning incorporates the resilience of baseline commercial flows—averaging 30–40 vessels daily—against ongoing regional tensions, with resolution hinging on final AIS and tracking data releases near the August 23 close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
200+ 73%
180-199 12%
160-179 7%
<160 2.5%
$25,786 Vol.
$25,786 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<160
3%
160-179
7%
180-199
12%
200+
77%
200+ 73%
180-199 12%
160-179 7%
<160 2.5%
$25,786 Vol.
$25,786 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<160
$6,988 Vol.
3%
160-179
$4,378 Vol.
7%
180-199
$6,168 Vol.
12%
200+
$8,252 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, in place since mid-July 2026, have reduced overall volumes from pre-blockade peaks but stabilized weekly totals in the 200–275 range, supported by continued transits from non-targeted flags, dark AIS movements, and exemptions for certain cargoes such as Chinese-linked crude. Early-August data, including daily peaks of 39–46 commodity vessels and weekly aggregates near 266–273 passages, underpin the market-implied 78% probability on 200+ transits for the August 17–23 week, with lower buckets reflecting only modest further downside from rerouting or temporary disruptions. Trader positioning incorporates the resilience of baseline commercial flows—averaging 30–40 vessels daily—against ongoing regional tensions, with resolution hinging on final AIS and tracking data releases near the August 23 close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$25,786End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, in place since mid-July 2026, have reduced overall volumes from pre-blockade peaks but stabilized weekly totals in the 200–275 range, supported by continued transits from non-targeted flags, dark AIS movements, and exemptions for certain cargoes such as Chinese-linked crude. Early-August data, including daily peaks of 39–46 commodity vessels and weekly aggregates near 266–273 passages, underpin the market-implied 78% probability on 200+ transits for the August 17–23 week, with lower buckets reflecting only modest further downside from rerouting or temporary disruptions. Trader positioning incorporates the resilience of baseline commercial flows—averaging 30–40 vessels daily—against ongoing regional tensions, with resolution hinging on final AIS and tracking data releases near the August 23 close.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$25,786End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi-imposed restrictions on Saudi-linked traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, in place since mid-July 2026, have reduced overall volumes from pre-blockade peaks but stabilized weekly totals in the 200–275 range, supported by continued transits from non-targeted flags, dark AIS movements, and exemptions for certain cargoes such as Chinese-linked crude. Early-August data, including daily peaks of 39–46 commodity vessels and weekly aggregates near 266–273 passages, underpin the market-implied 78% probability on 200+ transits for the August 17–23 week, with lower buckets reflecting only modest further downside from rerouting or temporary disruptions. Trader positioning incorporates the resilience of baseline commercial flows—averaging 30–40 vessels daily—against ongoing regional tensions, with resolution hinging on final AIS and tracking data releases near the August 23 close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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