Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA currently indicate a highest temperature in central NYC on July 26 near 81–84°F, with limited moisture and moderate onshore flow suppressing stronger daytime heating after the early-July heat wave. This consensus underpins the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around the low-to-mid 80s, where 82–83°F leads at 35.5% and 84–85°F follows at 25.5%. Recent ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, though small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could nudge readings a degree or two higher. Historical July climatology for the region centers near 84°F, providing context for why traders assign only modest odds to outcomes above 86°F. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on July 26?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?
82-83°F 38%
84-85°F 27%
80-81°F 17%
86-87°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
77°F or below
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
38%
84-85°F
27%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
1%
96°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 38%
84-85°F 27%
80-81°F 17%
86-87°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Jul 26, 2026
77°F or below
$574 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$81 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$390 Vol.
17%
82-83°F
$1,035 Vol.
38%
84-85°F
$278 Vol.
27%
86-87°F
$140 Vol.
10%
88-89°F
$120 Vol.
4%
90-91°F
$96 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$51 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$71 Vol.
1%
96°F or higher
$295 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA currently indicate a highest temperature in central NYC on July 26 near 81–84°F, with limited moisture and moderate onshore flow suppressing stronger daytime heating after the early-July heat wave. This consensus underpins the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around the low-to-mid 80s, where 82–83°F leads at 35.5% and 84–85°F follows at 25.5%. Recent ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, though small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could nudge readings a degree or two higher. Historical July climatology for the region centers near 84°F, providing context for why traders assign only modest odds to outcomes above 86°F. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,774End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA currently indicate a highest temperature in central NYC on July 26 near 81–84°F, with limited moisture and moderate onshore flow suppressing stronger daytime heating after the early-July heat wave. This consensus underpins the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around the low-to-mid 80s, where 82–83°F leads at 35.5% and 84–85°F follows at 25.5%. Recent ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, though small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could nudge readings a degree or two higher. Historical July climatology for the region centers near 84°F, providing context for why traders assign only modest odds to outcomes above 86°F. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,774End Date
Jul 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and NOAA currently indicate a highest temperature in central NYC on July 26 near 81–84°F, with limited moisture and moderate onshore flow suppressing stronger daytime heating after the early-July heat wave. This consensus underpins the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around the low-to-mid 80s, where 82–83°F leads at 35.5% and 84–85°F follows at 25.5%. Recent ensemble guidance shows minimal spread, though small shifts in cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could nudge readings a degree or two higher. Historical July climatology for the region centers near 84°F, providing context for why traders assign only modest odds to outcomes above 86°F. Updated model runs and afternoon observations tomorrow will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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