Recent forecasts for Chengdu indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderating temperatures following a recent cooling trend driven by cold air intrusion and the onset of the Huaxi autumn rain period. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models clusters maximum temperatures on September 12 around 22–25 °C, with limited daytime heating from reduced insolation and moist boundary-layer conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in closely matched probabilities for 23–26 °C outcomes, captures genuine short-term uncertainty arising from model differences in precipitation timing and intensity. Updated runs from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 48 hours will likely refine the expected peak and shift implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 12?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 12?
24°C 25%
25°C 23%
23°C 16%
26°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
8%
23°C
16%
24°C
25%
25°C
23%
26°C
16%
27°C
7%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 25%
25°C 23%
23°C 16%
26°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
20°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
21°C
$13 Vol.
4%
22°C
$110 Vol.
8%
23°C
$151 Vol.
16%
24°C
$106 Vol.
25%
25°C
$49 Vol.
23%
26°C
$175 Vol.
16%
27°C
$32 Vol.
7%
28°C
$22 Vol.
4%
29°C
$161 Vol.
2%
30°C or higher
$252 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Chengdu indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderating temperatures following a recent cooling trend driven by cold air intrusion and the onset of the Huaxi autumn rain period. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models clusters maximum temperatures on September 12 around 22–25 °C, with limited daytime heating from reduced insolation and moist boundary-layer conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in closely matched probabilities for 23–26 °C outcomes, captures genuine short-term uncertainty arising from model differences in precipitation timing and intensity. Updated runs from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 48 hours will likely refine the expected peak and shift implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,091End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts for Chengdu indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderating temperatures following a recent cooling trend driven by cold air intrusion and the onset of the Huaxi autumn rain period. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models clusters maximum temperatures on September 12 around 22–25 °C, with limited daytime heating from reduced insolation and moist boundary-layer conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in closely matched probabilities for 23–26 °C outcomes, captures genuine short-term uncertainty arising from model differences in precipitation timing and intensity. Updated runs from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 48 hours will likely refine the expected peak and shift implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,091End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts for Chengdu indicate persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderating temperatures following a recent cooling trend driven by cold air intrusion and the onset of the Huaxi autumn rain period. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models clusters maximum temperatures on September 12 around 22–25 °C, with limited daytime heating from reduced insolation and moist boundary-layer conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in closely matched probabilities for 23–26 °C outcomes, captures genuine short-term uncertainty arising from model differences in precipitation timing and intensity. Updated runs from CMA, ECMWF, and GFS over the next 48 hours will likely refine the expected peak and shift implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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