Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since early 2026 have included American strikes on Hengam Island and nearby sites such as Qeshm, targeting Iranian air defenses, radars, and drone infrastructure used for maritime operations. July 2026 strikes on Hengam followed earlier actions against regional command nodes, yet Iranian authorities continue to administer the island as part of Hormozgan Province with no reported transfer of governmental or military control to another state or force. Traders assign low probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026, reflecting the scale of forces required for any occupation, Iran's stated commitment to defending its Gulf territories, and the absence of confirmed seizure scenarios despite active conflict. Resolution depends on official statements confirming primary control by a non-Iranian entity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$122,168 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$122,168 Vol.
August 31
$94,620 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since early 2026 have included American strikes on Hengam Island and nearby sites such as Qeshm, targeting Iranian air defenses, radars, and drone infrastructure used for maritime operations. July 2026 strikes on Hengam followed earlier actions against regional command nodes, yet Iranian authorities continue to administer the island as part of Hormozgan Province with no reported transfer of governmental or military control to another state or force. Traders assign low probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026, reflecting the scale of forces required for any occupation, Iran's stated commitment to defending its Gulf territories, and the absence of confirmed seizure scenarios despite active conflict. Resolution depends on official statements confirming primary control by a non-Iranian entity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$122,168End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since early 2026 have included American strikes on Hengam Island and nearby sites such as Qeshm, targeting Iranian air defenses, radars, and drone infrastructure used for maritime operations. July 2026 strikes on Hengam followed earlier actions against regional command nodes, yet Iranian authorities continue to administer the island as part of Hormozgan Province with no reported transfer of governmental or military control to another state or force. Traders assign low probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026, reflecting the scale of forces required for any occupation, Iran's stated commitment to defending its Gulf territories, and the absence of confirmed seizure scenarios despite active conflict. Resolution depends on official statements confirming primary control by a non-Iranian entity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$122,168End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since early 2026 have included American strikes on Hengam Island and nearby sites such as Qeshm, targeting Iranian air defenses, radars, and drone infrastructure used for maritime operations. July 2026 strikes on Hengam followed earlier actions against regional command nodes, yet Iranian authorities continue to administer the island as part of Hormozgan Province with no reported transfer of governmental or military control to another state or force. Traders assign low probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026, reflecting the scale of forces required for any occupation, Iran's stated commitment to defending its Gulf territories, and the absence of confirmed seizure scenarios despite active conflict. Resolution depends on official statements confirming primary control by a non-Iranian entity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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