**Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockade dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment.** Kharg Island’s terminals, which handle roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, have experienced extended loading halts and reactivation attempts amid strikes on military assets, with satellite data showing fluctuating tanker queues and volumes tied to blockade enforcement. These islands’ strategic positions amplify energy-market exposure, as disruptions could constrain flows representing up to one-fifth of global oil trade and sustain elevated risk premiums in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Recent MoU expirations, renewed vessel incidents, and competing claims of control have reinforced uncertainty around any near-term shift in sovereignty, with market-implied odds reflecting the high barriers to territorial change despite sustained pressure on Iranian export infrastructure and sanctions compliance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$105,981 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
3%
$105,981 Vol.
August 31
$36,632 Vol.
1%
September 30
$69,348 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockade dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment.** Kharg Island’s terminals, which handle roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, have experienced extended loading halts and reactivation attempts amid strikes on military assets, with satellite data showing fluctuating tanker queues and volumes tied to blockade enforcement. These islands’ strategic positions amplify energy-market exposure, as disruptions could constrain flows representing up to one-fifth of global oil trade and sustain elevated risk premiums in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Recent MoU expirations, renewed vessel incidents, and competing claims of control have reinforced uncertainty around any near-term shift in sovereignty, with market-implied odds reflecting the high barriers to territorial change despite sustained pressure on Iranian export infrastructure and sanctions compliance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$105,981End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockade dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment.** Kharg Island’s terminals, which handle roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, have experienced extended loading halts and reactivation attempts amid strikes on military assets, with satellite data showing fluctuating tanker queues and volumes tied to blockade enforcement. These islands’ strategic positions amplify energy-market exposure, as disruptions could constrain flows representing up to one-fifth of global oil trade and sustain elevated risk premiums in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Recent MoU expirations, renewed vessel incidents, and competing claims of control have reinforced uncertainty around any near-term shift in sovereignty, with market-implied odds reflecting the high barriers to territorial change despite sustained pressure on Iranian export infrastructure and sanctions compliance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,981End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran military tensions and naval blockade dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment.** Kharg Island’s terminals, which handle roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, have experienced extended loading halts and reactivation attempts amid strikes on military assets, with satellite data showing fluctuating tanker queues and volumes tied to blockade enforcement. These islands’ strategic positions amplify energy-market exposure, as disruptions could constrain flows representing up to one-fifth of global oil trade and sustain elevated risk premiums in Brent and WTI benchmarks. Recent MoU expirations, renewed vessel incidents, and competing claims of control have reinforced uncertainty around any near-term shift in sovereignty, with market-implied odds reflecting the high barriers to territorial change despite sustained pressure on Iranian export infrastructure and sanctions compliance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions