Claudia Sheinbaum’s low implied probability of early departure from Mexico’s presidency stems from the country’s fixed six-year constitutional term, which ends in 2030, combined with Morena’s legislative majorities that limit removal mechanisms such as impeachment or forced resignation. Recent security operations, including the February 2026 capture of a major cartel leader, and infrastructure completions have reinforced her administration’s control, while diplomatic pushback against perceived U.S. interference has underscored sovereignty priorities. Approval ratings have eased from prior peaks to the low-to-mid 60s amid inflation and purchasing-power concerns, yet no scheduled events—such as midterm legislative votes or party conventions—appear positioned to trigger a leadership shift before year-end. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers and the absence of acute political or health catalysts.