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Geopolitics·Jalisco New Generation Cartel

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

icon for Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Geopolitics·Jalisco New Generation Cartel

Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

$143,093 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$143,093 Vol.

Polymarket

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar

$5,906 Vol.

62%

Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar

$5,848 Vol.

42%

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

$60,997 Vol.

50%

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan

$4,874 Vol.

36%

Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez

$58,662 Vol.

24%

Juan Reyes Mejía González

$200 Vol.

52%

Juan Pablo Ledezma

$658 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US law enforcement has intensified pressure on remaining Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG leaders through multimillion-dollar rewards programs, with $10 million bounties announced in February 2026 for Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar. February indictments and rewards for René “La Rana” Arzate-García and his brother, alongside the April arrest of CJNG commander Audias “El Jardinero” Flores Silva and the February death of El Mencho, have shaped expectations. Ongoing DEA operations, extraditions, and bilateral enforcement target fentanyl networks, with additional regional Sinaloa arrests such as Gabriel “Gabito” Martínez Larios in June illustrating momentum. Trader consensus reflects these enforcement patterns and scheduled investigations into fugitives through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$143,093
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US law enforcement has intensified pressure on remaining Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG leaders through multimillion-dollar rewards programs, with $10 million bounties announced in February 2026 for Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar. February indictments and rewards for René “La Rana” Arzate-García and his brother, alongside the April arrest of CJNG commander Audias “El Jardinero” Flores Silva and the February death of El Mencho, have shaped expectations. Ongoing DEA operations, extraditions, and bilateral enforcement target fentanyl networks, with additional regional Sinaloa arrests such as Gabriel “Gabito” Martínez Larios in June illustrating momentum. Trader consensus reflects these enforcement patterns and scheduled investigations into fugitives through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$143,093
End Date
Feb 28, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Audias Flores-Silva" at 100%, followed by "Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar" at 62%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?" has generated $143.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?" is "Audias Flores-Silva" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar" at 62%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.