**Trader consensus has coalesced around claude-opus-5-high at 99.8% implied probability** because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release quickly established state-of-the-art results on key 2026 benchmarks, including Frontier-Bench coding tasks, ARC-AGI novel problem-solving, and agentic workflows, often matching or exceeding higher-priced siblings like Fable 5 at half the cost. As of late August 2026 leaderboards, Opus 5 variants lead or rank near the top across intelligence, coding, and reasoning indices, reinforcing its position as the daily-use frontier model on Claude platforms. Realistic challenges include an unexpected new release before resolution, a shift in “best” criteria toward cybersecurity or other niches where Mythos 5 or competitors hold edges, or last-minute benchmark updates that alter relative standings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-5-high 100.0%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
qwen3.8-max <1%
$62,533 Vol.
$62,533 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
No
claude-opus-5-high
Yes
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
No
qwen3.8-max
No
Other
No
claude-opus-5-high 100.0%
claude-opus-5-max <1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
qwen3.8-max <1%
$62,533 Vol.
$62,533 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$31,572 Vol.
No
claude-opus-5-high
$11,830 Vol.
Yes
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$8,728 Vol.
No
qwen3.8-max
$905 Vol.
No
Other
$9,498 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader consensus has coalesced around claude-opus-5-high at 99.8% implied probability** because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release quickly established state-of-the-art results on key 2026 benchmarks, including Frontier-Bench coding tasks, ARC-AGI novel problem-solving, and agentic workflows, often matching or exceeding higher-priced siblings like Fable 5 at half the cost. As of late August 2026 leaderboards, Opus 5 variants lead or rank near the top across intelligence, coding, and reasoning indices, reinforcing its position as the daily-use frontier model on Claude platforms. Realistic challenges include an unexpected new release before resolution, a shift in “best” criteria toward cybersecurity or other niches where Mythos 5 or competitors hold edges, or last-minute benchmark updates that alter relative standings.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$62,533End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Trader consensus has coalesced around claude-opus-5-high at 99.8% implied probability** because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release quickly established state-of-the-art results on key 2026 benchmarks, including Frontier-Bench coding tasks, ARC-AGI novel problem-solving, and agentic workflows, often matching or exceeding higher-priced siblings like Fable 5 at half the cost. As of late August 2026 leaderboards, Opus 5 variants lead or rank near the top across intelligence, coding, and reasoning indices, reinforcing its position as the daily-use frontier model on Claude platforms. Realistic challenges include an unexpected new release before resolution, a shift in “best” criteria toward cybersecurity or other niches where Mythos 5 or competitors hold edges, or last-minute benchmark updates that alter relative standings.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$62,533End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 8, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
**Trader consensus has coalesced around claude-opus-5-high at 99.8% implied probability** because Anthropic’s July 24, 2026 release quickly established state-of-the-art results on key 2026 benchmarks, including Frontier-Bench coding tasks, ARC-AGI novel problem-solving, and agentic workflows, often matching or exceeding higher-priced siblings like Fable 5 at half the cost. As of late August 2026 leaderboards, Opus 5 variants lead or rank near the top across intelligence, coding, and reasoning indices, reinforcing its position as the daily-use frontier model on Claude platforms. Realistic challenges include an unexpected new release before resolution, a shift in “best” criteria toward cybersecurity or other niches where Mythos 5 or competitors hold edges, or last-minute benchmark updates that alter relative standings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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