**Die Linke leads recent Berlin state election polls by a wide margin ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus vote, consistently placing first at 19–22% while the SPD sits at 12–15%.** Multiple surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Infratest dimap, Civey, and INSA, show this gap holding or widening, reflecting Linke gains on housing affordability, rent caps, and the unresolved 2021 expropriation referendum. The SPD, long dominant in Berlin governance, faces sharp erosion of its traditional support base amid broader center-party weakness. This polling differential underpins the 88.5% implied probability that Linke will receive more votes than the SPD. Trader consensus aligns with the sustained lead in voting intention data, though outcomes remain subject to final turnout and any late shifts in a multi-party field that also includes the CDU, Greens, and AfD. No major offsetting developments have narrowed the gap in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLinke
89% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke
89% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Die Linke leads recent Berlin state election polls by a wide margin ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus vote, consistently placing first at 19–22% while the SPD sits at 12–15%.** Multiple surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Infratest dimap, Civey, and INSA, show this gap holding or widening, reflecting Linke gains on housing affordability, rent caps, and the unresolved 2021 expropriation referendum. The SPD, long dominant in Berlin governance, faces sharp erosion of its traditional support base amid broader center-party weakness.
This polling differential underpins the 88.5% implied probability that Linke will receive more votes than the SPD. Trader consensus aligns with the sustained lead in voting intention data, though outcomes remain subject to final turnout and any late shifts in a multi-party field that also includes the CDU, Greens, and AfD. No major offsetting developments have narrowed the gap in the past month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Volume
$466End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Die Linke leads recent Berlin state election polls by a wide margin ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus vote, consistently placing first at 19–22% while the SPD sits at 12–15%.** Multiple surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Infratest dimap, Civey, and INSA, show this gap holding or widening, reflecting Linke gains on housing affordability, rent caps, and the unresolved 2021 expropriation referendum. The SPD, long dominant in Berlin governance, faces sharp erosion of its traditional support base amid broader center-party weakness.
This polling differential underpins the 88.5% implied probability that Linke will receive more votes than the SPD. Trader consensus aligns with the sustained lead in voting intention data, though outcomes remain subject to final turnout and any late shifts in a multi-party field that also includes the CDU, Greens, and AfD. No major offsetting developments have narrowed the gap in the past month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Linke” if Linke wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Linke in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Linke and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$466End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Die Linke leads recent Berlin state election polls by a wide margin ahead of the September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus vote, consistently placing first at 19–22% while the SPD sits at 12–15%.** Multiple surveys from July and August 2026, including those by Infratest dimap, Civey, and INSA, show this gap holding or widening, reflecting Linke gains on housing affordability, rent caps, and the unresolved 2021 expropriation referendum. The SPD, long dominant in Berlin governance, faces sharp erosion of its traditional support base amid broader center-party weakness. This polling differential underpins the 88.5% implied probability that Linke will receive more votes than the SPD. Trader consensus aligns with the sustained lead in voting intention data, though outcomes remain subject to final turnout and any late shifts in a multi-party field that also includes the CDU, Greens, and AfD. No major offsetting developments have narrowed the gap in the past month.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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