Persistent US-Iran diplomatic severance since 1979, compounded by 2026 hostilities including April airstrikes near the former Tehran embassy compound and subsequent indirect talks, drives the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening in 2026. A June memorandum of understanding addressed Strait of Hormuz navigation and limited sanctions relief but produced no normalization roadmap or direct bilateral channel, leaving Switzerland as the protecting power and the US Virtual Embassy as the sole presence. Recent progress in Oman-mediated discussions has not extended to embassy restoration or full diplomatic ties. A rapid breakthrough resolving nuclear verification, proxy conflicts, and mutual grievances before year-end could still alter probabilities, though structural barriers and the absence of confirmed direct engagement keep such shifts improbable within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
¿Reabrirá Estados Unidos su embajada en Irán en 2026?
Sí
5% probabilidad
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
5% probabilidad
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran diplomatic severance since 1979, compounded by 2026 hostilities including April airstrikes near the former Tehran embassy compound and subsequent indirect talks, drives the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening in 2026. A June memorandum of understanding addressed Strait of Hormuz navigation and limited sanctions relief but produced no normalization roadmap or direct bilateral channel, leaving Switzerland as the protecting power and the US Virtual Embassy as the sole presence. Recent progress in Oman-mediated discussions has not extended to embassy restoration or full diplomatic ties. A rapid breakthrough resolving nuclear verification, proxy conflicts, and mutual grievances before year-end could still alter probabilities, though structural barriers and the absence of confirmed direct engagement keep such shifts improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volumen
$158,294Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran diplomatic severance since 1979, compounded by 2026 hostilities including April airstrikes near the former Tehran embassy compound and subsequent indirect talks, drives the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening in 2026. A June memorandum of understanding addressed Strait of Hormuz navigation and limited sanctions relief but produced no normalization roadmap or direct bilateral channel, leaving Switzerland as the protecting power and the US Virtual Embassy as the sole presence. Recent progress in Oman-mediated discussions has not extended to embassy restoration or full diplomatic ties. A rapid breakthrough resolving nuclear verification, proxy conflicts, and mutual grievances before year-end could still alter probabilities, though structural barriers and the absence of confirmed direct engagement keep such shifts improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$158,294Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Iran diplomatic severance since 1979, compounded by 2026 hostilities including April airstrikes near the former Tehran embassy compound and subsequent indirect talks, drives the 95.5% trader consensus against reopening in 2026. A June memorandum of understanding addressed Strait of Hormuz navigation and limited sanctions relief but produced no normalization roadmap or direct bilateral channel, leaving Switzerland as the protecting power and the US Virtual Embassy as the sole presence. Recent progress in Oman-mediated discussions has not extended to embassy restoration or full diplomatic ties. A rapid breakthrough resolving nuclear verification, proxy conflicts, and mutual grievances before year-end could still alter probabilities, though structural barriers and the absence of confirmed direct engagement keep such shifts improbable within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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