**Traders assign a 65.5% probability that the AfD will not enter a German state government in 2026, reflecting the persistent “firewall” (Brandmauer) maintained by all other major parties against coalitions with the party.** In the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election—the most immediate test—AfD leads polls at roughly 40-42% and sits near an absolute majority, aided by the 5% electoral threshold that could exclude smaller parties and convert its support into a governing majority. Similar strength appears in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin later in September. However, CDU-led efforts to assemble alternative coalitions, combined with federal measures to restrict information-sharing and policy influence should AfD win, sustain uncertainty. The party’s continued classification as extremist by state intelligence and explicit refusals of cooperation from CDU, SPD, Greens, and others reinforce the view that arithmetic or political exclusion will likely prevail this year despite AfD’s eastern gains and national polling lead.