Super Typhoon Dolphin reached Category 5 strength with peak winds near 160–165 mph in late July 2026 but has since weakened steadily through multiple eyewall replacement cycles and increasing environmental shear while tracking northwest across the western Pacific. As of early August 9, the system is a Category 1-equivalent typhoon with sustained winds around 80–85 mph near 27–28°N, 123–124°E, and official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicate no re-intensification before its imminent landfall along China’s southeastern coast south of Taizhou. This rapid decay over progressively less favorable ocean conditions and proximity to land explains the 97.3% market-implied probability of “No.” The primary remaining uncertainty is any last-hour track wobble or brief convective burst, though models show minimal potential for winds to reach the Category 4 threshold of 130 mph before crossing the coastline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El Super Typhoon Dolphin tocará tierra con una fuerza de categoría 4 o superior?
¿El Super Typhoon Dolphin tocará tierra con una fuerza de categoría 4 o superior?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$17,479 Vol.
$17,479 Vol.
16 ago 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$17,479 Vol.
$17,479 Vol.
16 ago 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin reached Category 5 strength with peak winds near 160–165 mph in late July 2026 but has since weakened steadily through multiple eyewall replacement cycles and increasing environmental shear while tracking northwest across the western Pacific. As of early August 9, the system is a Category 1-equivalent typhoon with sustained winds around 80–85 mph near 27–28°N, 123–124°E, and official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicate no re-intensification before its imminent landfall along China’s southeastern coast south of Taizhou. This rapid decay over progressively less favorable ocean conditions and proximity to land explains the 97.3% market-implied probability of “No.” The primary remaining uncertainty is any last-hour track wobble or brief convective burst, though models show minimal potential for winds to reach the Category 4 threshold of 130 mph before crossing the coastline.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Mercado abierto: Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$17,479Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin reached Category 5 strength with peak winds near 160–165 mph in late July 2026 but has since weakened steadily through multiple eyewall replacement cycles and increasing environmental shear while tracking northwest across the western Pacific. As of early August 9, the system is a Category 1-equivalent typhoon with sustained winds around 80–85 mph near 27–28°N, 123–124°E, and official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicate no re-intensification before its imminent landfall along China’s southeastern coast south of Taizhou. This rapid decay over progressively less favorable ocean conditions and proximity to land explains the 97.3% market-implied probability of “No.” The primary remaining uncertainty is any last-hour track wobble or brief convective burst, though models show minimal potential for winds to reach the Category 4 threshold of 130 mph before crossing the coastline.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volumen
$17,554Fecha de finalización
16 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Super Typhoon Dolphin reached Category 5 strength with peak winds near 160–165 mph in late July 2026 but has since weakened steadily through multiple eyewall replacement cycles and increasing environmental shear while tracking northwest across the western Pacific. As of early August 9, the system is a Category 1-equivalent typhoon with sustained winds around 80–85 mph near 27–28°N, 123–124°E, and official forecasts from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and Japan Meteorological Agency indicate no re-intensification before its imminent landfall along China’s southeastern coast south of Taizhou. This rapid decay over progressively less favorable ocean conditions and proximity to land explains the 97.3% market-implied probability of “No.” The primary remaining uncertainty is any last-hour track wobble or brief convective burst, though models show minimal potential for winds to reach the Category 4 threshold of 130 mph before crossing the coastline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes