**Trader sentiment for Manila’s peak temperature on August 9 centers on 29°C (35.5% implied probability) and nearby outcomes (28–30°C collectively exceeding 75%), reflecting the strong influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated cloud cover.** Official PAGASA outlooks indicate daytime highs of 30–32°C with scattered showers and thunderstorms, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather places the seasonal August average near 31°C. Persistent monsoon-enhanced moisture and reduced insolation typically suppress actual maxima below climatological norms, favoring readings in the 28–30°C range—consistent with patterns seen in the immediately preceding days. Historical analogs for early-to-mid August show similar suppression when convective activity increases, and current model consensus points to no major steering changes or clearing trends before the 9th. With resolution based on the official Ninoy Aquino International Airport station reading, traders are pricing in the high likelihood of modest daytime heating under cloudy, rainy conditions rather than the rarer clear-sky spikes toward 32°C or higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 9 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 9 de agosto?
29°C 36%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 ago 2026
23°C o menos
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
21%
29°C
36%
30°C
22%
31°C
12%
32°C
2%
33°C o más
2%
29°C 36%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 ago 2026
23°C o menos
$281 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$321 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$498 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$52 Vol.
2%
27°C
$65 Vol.
4%
28°C
$60 Vol.
21%
29°C
$288 Vol.
36%
30°C
$24 Vol.
22%
31°C
$160 Vol.
12%
32°C
$54 Vol.
2%
33°C o más
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila’s peak temperature on August 9 centers on 29°C (35.5% implied probability) and nearby outcomes (28–30°C collectively exceeding 75%), reflecting the strong influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated cloud cover.**
Official PAGASA outlooks indicate daytime highs of 30–32°C with scattered showers and thunderstorms, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather places the seasonal August average near 31°C. Persistent monsoon-enhanced moisture and reduced insolation typically suppress actual maxima below climatological norms, favoring readings in the 28–30°C range—consistent with patterns seen in the immediately preceding days.
Historical analogs for early-to-mid August show similar suppression when convective activity increases, and current model consensus points to no major steering changes or clearing trends before the 9th. With resolution based on the official Ninoy Aquino International Airport station reading, traders are pricing in the high likelihood of modest daytime heating under cloudy, rainy conditions rather than the rarer clear-sky spikes toward 32°C or higher.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 7, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$1,809Fecha de finalización
9 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila’s peak temperature on August 9 centers on 29°C (35.5% implied probability) and nearby outcomes (28–30°C collectively exceeding 75%), reflecting the strong influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated cloud cover.**
Official PAGASA outlooks indicate daytime highs of 30–32°C with scattered showers and thunderstorms, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather places the seasonal August average near 31°C. Persistent monsoon-enhanced moisture and reduced insolation typically suppress actual maxima below climatological norms, favoring readings in the 28–30°C range—consistent with patterns seen in the immediately preceding days.
Historical analogs for early-to-mid August show similar suppression when convective activity increases, and current model consensus points to no major steering changes or clearing trends before the 9th. With resolution based on the official Ninoy Aquino International Airport station reading, traders are pricing in the high likelihood of modest daytime heating under cloudy, rainy conditions rather than the rarer clear-sky spikes toward 32°C or higher.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,809Fecha de finalización
9 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 7, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Manila’s peak temperature on August 9 centers on 29°C (35.5% implied probability) and nearby outcomes (28–30°C collectively exceeding 75%), reflecting the strong influence of the southwest monsoon (habagat) and associated cloud cover.** Official PAGASA outlooks indicate daytime highs of 30–32°C with scattered showers and thunderstorms, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather places the seasonal August average near 31°C. Persistent monsoon-enhanced moisture and reduced insolation typically suppress actual maxima below climatological norms, favoring readings in the 28–30°C range—consistent with patterns seen in the immediately preceding days. Historical analogs for early-to-mid August show similar suppression when convective activity increases, and current model consensus points to no major steering changes or clearing trends before the 9th. With resolution based on the official Ninoy Aquino International Airport station reading, traders are pricing in the high likelihood of modest daytime heating under cloudy, rainy conditions rather than the rarer clear-sky spikes toward 32°C or higher.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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