Persistent dry and warm conditions across the Pacific Northwest, driven by historically low 2026 snowpack from a warm winter and multi-year precipitation deficits, have already produced 2.2% of Oregon in D4 exceptional drought per the August 4 U.S. Drought Monitor. NOAA seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts indicate continued below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures through late August, favoring further expansion of severe-to-exceptional categories in eastern and central Oregon. With only three weeks until the August 31 resolution date and 91% of the state already in D1-D4, traders assign 77.5% implied probability to additional D4 development, tempered by potential model shifts or isolated late-month precipitation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Llegará Oregón a D4 (sequía excepcional) antes del 31 de agosto de 2026?
¿Llegará Oregón a D4 (sequía excepcional) antes del 31 de agosto de 2026?
88% probabilidad
$17,945 Vol.
$17,945 Vol.
1 sep 2026
88% probabilidad
$17,945 Vol.
$17,945 Vol.
1 sep 2026
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.Persistent dry and warm conditions across the Pacific Northwest, driven by historically low 2026 snowpack from a warm winter and multi-year precipitation deficits, have already produced 2.2% of Oregon in D4 exceptional drought per the August 4 U.S. Drought Monitor. NOAA seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts indicate continued below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures through late August, favoring further expansion of severe-to-exceptional categories in eastern and central Oregon. With only three weeks until the August 31 resolution date and 91% of the state already in D1-D4, traders assign 77.5% implied probability to additional D4 development, tempered by potential model shifts or isolated late-month precipitation.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ET
Volumen
$17,945Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.Persistent dry and warm conditions across the Pacific Northwest, driven by historically low 2026 snowpack from a warm winter and multi-year precipitation deficits, have already produced 2.2% of Oregon in D4 exceptional drought per the August 4 U.S. Drought Monitor. NOAA seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts indicate continued below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures through late August, favoring further expansion of severe-to-exceptional categories in eastern and central Oregon. With only three weeks until the August 31 resolution date and 91% of the state already in D1-D4, traders assign 77.5% implied probability to additional D4 development, tempered by potential model shifts or isolated late-month precipitation.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the D4 Exceptional Drought value shown in the official U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly "Categorical Percent Area" statistics table for Oregon published by the National Drought Mitigation Center at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx?dregion,4 is 1.00% or greater in any weekly release published from market creation through August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". D4 Exceptional Drought is defined as described at https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData.aspx.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
"Oregon" means the entire State of Oregon as recognized under U.S. law.
Eligibility is determined solely by the release's publication date, not the date its underlying map data is valid "as of" (USDM releases are typically published on Thursday but reflect conditions as of the preceding Tuesday), except as provided in the force majeure clause below.
Upon a qualifying release, the market will be held open for 7 calendar days from its publication date before finalizing, to allow for NDMC corrections. If those 7 days elapse before August 31, settlement finalizes at that point. If the qualifying release is published within 7 days of August 31, including on August 31 itself, the market will remain open past August 31 for the balance of that window, resolving at the earlier of (i) the 7 days elapsing or (ii) NDMC issuing a correction to that release. This holding period does not extend the publication-date cutoff, it only delays finalization of a release that already qualified.
If the NDMC publishes no weekly release at all before August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, due to a data disruption, government shutdown, or other event, this market will accept the next official weekly release published after that date as the sole governing release, up to 14 calendar days following the scheduled expiration date, and will resolve "Yes" or "No" based on that release's D4 value under the same 1.00% threshold.
A correction will be considered only if issued before the market finalizes settlement under the holding period above. Once finalized, that determination is final and will not be revised, reopened, or reversed by any correction, revision, or retraction issued afterward. A correction issued within the holding period is fully applied to the D4 value used for resolution, and that finalization occurs after (not at the instant of) any such correction, so the corrected value governs.
Volumen
$17,945Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent dry and warm conditions across the Pacific Northwest, driven by historically low 2026 snowpack from a warm winter and multi-year precipitation deficits, have already produced 2.2% of Oregon in D4 exceptional drought per the August 4 U.S. Drought Monitor. NOAA seasonal outlooks and short-term forecasts indicate continued below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures through late August, favoring further expansion of severe-to-exceptional categories in eastern and central Oregon. With only three weeks until the August 31 resolution date and 91% of the state already in D1-D4, traders assign 77.5% implied probability to additional D4 development, tempered by potential model shifts or isolated late-month precipitation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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