Apple’s established annual September launch cadence, reinforced by a confirmed September 9, 2026, event and supply-chain reports confirming production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models with the A20 chip, drives the 98.8% implied probability for a 2026 release. Industry analysts and suppliers like Largan Precision highlight ongoing manufacturing for premium variants alongside a new foldable device, maintaining the company’s track record of yearly flagship updates despite a reported split-launch strategy that defers the base iPhone 18 to 2027. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple’s silicon allocations with TSMC and historical consistency. Rare disruptive factors such as major component shortages, regulatory delays on new modem technology, or unforeseen production setbacks could still shift timelines, though current preparations make such outcomes unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
99% probabilidad
$175,807 Vol.
$175,807 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
99% probabilidad
$175,807 Vol.
$175,807 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual September launch cadence, reinforced by a confirmed September 9, 2026, event and supply-chain reports confirming production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models with the A20 chip, drives the 98.8% implied probability for a 2026 release. Industry analysts and suppliers like Largan Precision highlight ongoing manufacturing for premium variants alongside a new foldable device, maintaining the company’s track record of yearly flagship updates despite a reported split-launch strategy that defers the base iPhone 18 to 2027. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple’s silicon allocations with TSMC and historical consistency. Rare disruptive factors such as major component shortages, regulatory delays on new modem technology, or unforeseen production setbacks could still shift timelines, though current preparations make such outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$175,807Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual September launch cadence, reinforced by a confirmed September 9, 2026, event and supply-chain reports confirming production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models with the A20 chip, drives the 98.8% implied probability for a 2026 release. Industry analysts and suppliers like Largan Precision highlight ongoing manufacturing for premium variants alongside a new foldable device, maintaining the company’s track record of yearly flagship updates despite a reported split-launch strategy that defers the base iPhone 18 to 2027. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple’s silicon allocations with TSMC and historical consistency. Rare disruptive factors such as major component shortages, regulatory delays on new modem technology, or unforeseen production setbacks could still shift timelines, though current preparations make such outcomes unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$175,807Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual September launch cadence, reinforced by a confirmed September 9, 2026, event and supply-chain reports confirming production of iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models with the A20 chip, drives the 98.8% implied probability for a 2026 release. Industry analysts and suppliers like Largan Precision highlight ongoing manufacturing for premium variants alongside a new foldable device, maintaining the company’s track record of yearly flagship updates despite a reported split-launch strategy that defers the base iPhone 18 to 2027. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple’s silicon allocations with TSMC and historical consistency. Rare disruptive factors such as major component shortages, regulatory delays on new modem technology, or unforeseen production setbacks could still shift timelines, though current preparations make such outcomes unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes