The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with only two tropical storms (Arthur and Bertha) recorded through early August and zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress intensification. This positions Cristobal—the next name on the official list after Bertha—as the clear frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability, since any system reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or higher would immediately become the season’s first hurricane. Dolly (27%) and Edouard (19%) follow as logical alternatives if the third named storm fails to intensify or if development is further delayed, while lower-priced later names reflect the historically low odds of skipping multiple early opportunities in a suppressed environment. Updated seasonal guidance and ongoing National Hurricane Center monitoring of emerging disturbances will continue to shape near-term shifts in these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?
¿Cómo se llamará el primer huracán en el Atlántico para la temporada de huracanes de 2026?
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 dic 2026
Cristóbal
40%
Dolly
27%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
5%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
Nana
9%
Omar
9%
Paulette
10%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
8%
Wilfred
4%
Otro
4%
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 dic 2026
Cristóbal
$162 Vol.
40%
Dolly
$86 Vol.
27%
Edouard
$222 Vol.
19%
Fay
$72 Vol.
5%
Gonzalo
$72 Vol.
4%
Hanna
$73 Vol.
5%
Isaias
$88 Vol.
5%
Josephine
$55 Vol.
5%
Kyle
$94 Vol.
4%
Leah
$59 Vol.
3%
Marco
$107 Vol.
9%
Nana
$51 Vol.
9%
Omar
$63 Vol.
9%
Paulette
$67 Vol.
10%
Rene
$63 Vol.
5%
Sally
$131 Vol.
3%
Teddy
$63 Vol.
5%
Vicky
$90 Vol.
8%
Wilfred
$118 Vol.
4%
Otro
$63 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with only two tropical storms (Arthur and Bertha) recorded through early August and zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress intensification. This positions Cristobal—the next name on the official list after Bertha—as the clear frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability, since any system reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or higher would immediately become the season’s first hurricane. Dolly (27%) and Edouard (19%) follow as logical alternatives if the third named storm fails to intensify or if development is further delayed, while lower-priced later names reflect the historically low odds of skipping multiple early opportunities in a suppressed environment. Updated seasonal guidance and ongoing National Hurricane Center monitoring of emerging disturbances will continue to shape near-term shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Volumen
$1,801Fecha de finalización
2 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with only two tropical storms (Arthur and Bertha) recorded through early August and zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress intensification. This positions Cristobal—the next name on the official list after Bertha—as the clear frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability, since any system reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or higher would immediately become the season’s first hurricane. Dolly (27%) and Edouard (19%) follow as logical alternatives if the third named storm fails to intensify or if development is further delayed, while lower-priced later names reflect the historically low odds of skipping multiple early opportunities in a suppressed environment. Updated seasonal guidance and ongoing National Hurricane Center monitoring of emerging disturbances will continue to shape near-term shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volumen
$1,801Fecha de finalización
2 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with only two tropical storms (Arthur and Bertha) recorded through early August and zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal outlook driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress intensification. This positions Cristobal—the next name on the official list after Bertha—as the clear frontrunner at 40.5% implied probability, since any system reaching sustained winds of 74 mph or higher would immediately become the season’s first hurricane. Dolly (27%) and Edouard (19%) follow as logical alternatives if the third named storm fails to intensify or if development is further delayed, while lower-priced later names reflect the historically low odds of skipping multiple early opportunities in a suppressed environment. Updated seasonal guidance and ongoing National Hurricane Center monitoring of emerging disturbances will continue to shape near-term shifts in these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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