President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russia and China activities, remains the central catalyst for this market. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, however, as the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains 24-36 month readiness timelines for underground testing at the Nevada National Security Site. Trader consensus reflects these technical, budgetary, and diplomatic constraints, with probabilities for a test by late 2026 staying low amid ongoing stockpile stewardship, congressional oversight, and New START expiration dynamics. Potential 2026 funding decisions or new administration statements could shift timelines, but verifiable progress toward detonation remains absent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
¿Prueba nuclear de EE. UU. realizada por...?
$768,738 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre de 2026
1%
31 de diciembre de 2026
5%
$768,738 Vol.
30 de septiembre de 2026
$57,177 Vol.
1%
31 de diciembre de 2026
$50,749 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russia and China activities, remains the central catalyst for this market. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, however, as the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains 24-36 month readiness timelines for underground testing at the Nevada National Security Site. Trader consensus reflects these technical, budgetary, and diplomatic constraints, with probabilities for a test by late 2026 staying low amid ongoing stockpile stewardship, congressional oversight, and New START expiration dynamics. Potential 2026 funding decisions or new administration statements could shift timelines, but verifiable progress toward detonation remains absent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$768,738Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russia and China activities, remains the central catalyst for this market. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, however, as the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains 24-36 month readiness timelines for underground testing at the Nevada National Security Site. Trader consensus reflects these technical, budgetary, and diplomatic constraints, with probabilities for a test by late 2026 staying low amid ongoing stockpile stewardship, congressional oversight, and New START expiration dynamics. Potential 2026 funding decisions or new administration statements could shift timelines, but verifiable progress toward detonation remains absent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$768,738Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, citing Russia and China activities, remains the central catalyst for this market. No explosive tests have occurred since the 1992 moratorium, however, as the National Nuclear Security Administration maintains 24-36 month readiness timelines for underground testing at the Nevada National Security Site. Trader consensus reflects these technical, budgetary, and diplomatic constraints, with probabilities for a test by late 2026 staying low amid ongoing stockpile stewardship, congressional oversight, and New START expiration dynamics. Potential 2026 funding decisions or new administration statements could shift timelines, but verifiable progress toward detonation remains absent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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