Recent polling averages place Kristdemokraterna (KD) near the 6% threshold, with figures ranging from 4.2% in Statistics Sweden’s May survey to 6.1–7.5% in July and August Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator readings, reflecting modest gains of roughly one point over recent months. As the smallest Tidö coalition partner alongside the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, and Liberals, KD has benefited from incremental consolidation within the centre-right bloc even as the overall government side trails the red-green opposition in aggregate support ahead of the September 13 vote. Trader consensus for an “over” outcome at 57.5% aligns with this polling volatility and the party’s historical ability to clear the electoral threshold in coalition contexts, though sustained movement in undecided voters or bloc dynamics could still shift the final result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones parlamentarias en Suecia: ¿KD por encima/por debajo del 6%?
Elecciones parlamentarias en Suecia: ¿KD por encima/por debajo del 6%?
Over
57% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 sep 2026
Over
57% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
13 sep 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling averages place Kristdemokraterna (KD) near the 6% threshold, with figures ranging from 4.2% in Statistics Sweden’s May survey to 6.1–7.5% in July and August Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator readings, reflecting modest gains of roughly one point over recent months. As the smallest Tidö coalition partner alongside the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, and Liberals, KD has benefited from incremental consolidation within the centre-right bloc even as the overall government side trails the red-green opposition in aggregate support ahead of the September 13 vote. Trader consensus for an “over” outcome at 57.5% aligns with this polling volatility and the party’s historical ability to clear the electoral threshold in coalition contexts, though sustained movement in undecided voters or bloc dynamics could still shift the final result.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ET
Volumen
$41Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling averages place Kristdemokraterna (KD) near the 6% threshold, with figures ranging from 4.2% in Statistics Sweden’s May survey to 6.1–7.5% in July and August Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator readings, reflecting modest gains of roughly one point over recent months. As the smallest Tidö coalition partner alongside the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, and Liberals, KD has benefited from incremental consolidation within the centre-right bloc even as the overall government side trails the red-green opposition in aggregate support ahead of the September 13 vote. Trader consensus for an “over” outcome at 57.5% aligns with this polling volatility and the party’s historical ability to clear the electoral threshold in coalition contexts, though sustained movement in undecided voters or bloc dynamics could still shift the final result.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volumen
$41Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages place Kristdemokraterna (KD) near the 6% threshold, with figures ranging from 4.2% in Statistics Sweden’s May survey to 6.1–7.5% in July and August Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator readings, reflecting modest gains of roughly one point over recent months. As the smallest Tidö coalition partner alongside the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, and Liberals, KD has benefited from incremental consolidation within the centre-right bloc even as the overall government side trails the red-green opposition in aggregate support ahead of the September 13 vote. Trader consensus for an “over” outcome at 57.5% aligns with this polling volatility and the party’s historical ability to clear the electoral threshold in coalition contexts, though sustained movement in undecided voters or bloc dynamics could still shift the final result.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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