Chou Chun-mi, the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party magistrate, holds an 86.5% implied probability in the Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner market ahead of the November 28, 2026 vote, while Kuomintang nominee Su Ching-chuan sits at 14.5%. Traders assign these levels based on Chou’s established incumbency advantage, her 2022 victory margin over the same opponent, and the DPP’s consistent local base in the county. KMT confirmation of Su as challenger occurred in late 2025, with no subsequent polling shifts or major campaign developments reported that have narrowed the gap. Multiple other listed candidates reflect limited information on potential independents or minor-party entrants, resulting in neutral pricing around even odds. The resolution timeline runs through election certification, with any late coalition moves or turnout changes in southern Taiwan remaining the primary variables that could adjust current consensus.