The short remaining window until 2027, combined with USGS data showing only minor recent events below magnitude 3.0 across the Los Angeles region, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against a magnitude 6.5+ quake. Recurrence intervals for such events on local faults like the San Andreas and San Jacinto typically span decades, with the area remaining seismically quiet since the 1994 Northridge event and no observed foreshock sequences or accelerated creep in current monitoring. Trader consensus reflects this baseline rate of well under 5% annually. An unexpected cluster of moderate foreshocks or revised fault-slip measurements could still elevate near-term odds, though models show no such signals at present.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de magnitud 6.5+ en Los Ángeles antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de magnitud 6.5+ en Los Ángeles antes de 2027?
10% probabilidad
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31 dic 2026
10% probabilidad
$16,533 Vol.
$16,533 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The short remaining window until 2027, combined with USGS data showing only minor recent events below magnitude 3.0 across the Los Angeles region, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against a magnitude 6.5+ quake. Recurrence intervals for such events on local faults like the San Andreas and San Jacinto typically span decades, with the area remaining seismically quiet since the 1994 Northridge event and no observed foreshock sequences or accelerated creep in current monitoring. Trader consensus reflects this baseline rate of well under 5% annually. An unexpected cluster of moderate foreshocks or revised fault-slip measurements could still elevate near-term odds, though models show no such signals at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volumen
$16,533Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The short remaining window until 2027, combined with USGS data showing only minor recent events below magnitude 3.0 across the Los Angeles region, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against a magnitude 6.5+ quake. Recurrence intervals for such events on local faults like the San Andreas and San Jacinto typically span decades, with the area remaining seismically quiet since the 1994 Northridge event and no observed foreshock sequences or accelerated creep in current monitoring. Trader consensus reflects this baseline rate of well under 5% annually. An unexpected cluster of moderate foreshocks or revised fault-slip measurements could still elevate near-term odds, though models show no such signals at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$16,533Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The short remaining window until 2027, combined with USGS data showing only minor recent events below magnitude 3.0 across the Los Angeles region, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against a magnitude 6.5+ quake. Recurrence intervals for such events on local faults like the San Andreas and San Jacinto typically span decades, with the area remaining seismically quiet since the 1994 Northridge event and no observed foreshock sequences or accelerated creep in current monitoring. Trader consensus reflects this baseline rate of well under 5% annually. An unexpected cluster of moderate foreshocks or revised fault-slip measurements could still elevate near-term odds, though models show no such signals at present.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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