**The @khamenei_ir account now functions solely as an archival feed for statements from the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following his February 2026 assassination.** It publishes only reposted religious or political material at a consistently low volume, typically a handful of items per week rather than original commentary or real-time responses. This established pattern underpins the market's leading outcome of fewer than five posts for August 14–21 at 46.5% implied probability, with the 5–9 bucket at 22.5%. Higher ranges (10+) receive progressively lower shares as they would require an atypical surge in archival releases. No scheduled diplomatic, religious, or commemorative events in the immediate window appear positioned to alter that baseline frequency, keeping trader consensus aligned with historical weekly norms for the account.