Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding, following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have left Iran's nuclear infrastructure largely inoperable with stockpiles of highly enriched uranium trapped underground and subject to IAEA oversight requirements. Enrichment activities remain suspended, IAEA access to key facilities is under active diplomatic discussion, and satellite assessments indicate no operational resumption or weaponization progress through mid-2026. These verified setbacks, combined with the short timeline remaining before 2027, underpin the 94.5% implied probability that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon in the period. Ongoing talks and potential inspection arrangements further reinforce the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.