Latest numerical weather prediction models, including runs from AEMET and ECMWF, converge on a peak temperature of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 14 under a strong subtropical ridge and warm southerly advection from North Africa. Persistent anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds favor maximum heat accumulation during afternoon hours, consistent with the market-implied 49% probability on 39°C and 28% on 38°C. Ongoing regional heatwave patterns have elevated baseline temperatures above August climatological averages of 32–35°C, though ensemble spreads introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks and potential slight cooling from boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model updates for any shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 14 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Madrid el 14 de agosto?
39°C 48%
38°C 27%
40°C 15%
41°C 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 ago 2026
35°C o menos
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
5%
38°C
27%
39°C
48%
40°C
15%
41°C
5%
42°C
4%
43°C
1%
44°C
1%
45°C o más
1%
39°C 48%
38°C 27%
40°C 15%
41°C 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 ago 2026
35°C o menos
$14 Vol.
1%
36°C
$14 Vol.
2%
37°C
$64 Vol.
5%
38°C
$99 Vol.
27%
39°C
$101 Vol.
48%
40°C
$68 Vol.
15%
41°C
$22 Vol.
5%
42°C
$12 Vol.
4%
43°C
$5 Vol.
1%
44°C
$5 Vol.
1%
45°C o más
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including runs from AEMET and ECMWF, converge on a peak temperature of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 14 under a strong subtropical ridge and warm southerly advection from North Africa. Persistent anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds favor maximum heat accumulation during afternoon hours, consistent with the market-implied 49% probability on 39°C and 28% on 38°C. Ongoing regional heatwave patterns have elevated baseline temperatures above August climatological averages of 32–35°C, though ensemble spreads introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks and potential slight cooling from boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model updates for any shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$409Fecha de finalización
14 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including runs from AEMET and ECMWF, converge on a peak temperature of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 14 under a strong subtropical ridge and warm southerly advection from North Africa. Persistent anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds favor maximum heat accumulation during afternoon hours, consistent with the market-implied 49% probability on 39°C and 28% on 38°C. Ongoing regional heatwave patterns have elevated baseline temperatures above August climatological averages of 32–35°C, though ensemble spreads introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks and potential slight cooling from boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model updates for any shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$409Fecha de finalización
14 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including runs from AEMET and ECMWF, converge on a peak temperature of 38–39°C in Madrid on August 14 under a strong subtropical ridge and warm southerly advection from North Africa. Persistent anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds favor maximum heat accumulation during afternoon hours, consistent with the market-implied 49% probability on 39°C and 28% on 38°C. Ongoing regional heatwave patterns have elevated baseline temperatures above August climatological averages of 32–35°C, though ensemble spreads introduce modest uncertainty around exact peaks and potential slight cooling from boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the next 48-hour model updates for any shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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