The Federal Reserve has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive FOMC meetings, including the July 29 decision that featured a 9-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3%—well above the 2% mandate—along with supply-side pressures from tariffs, Middle East energy costs, and AI-driven demand has kept tightening risks in focus, as reflected in the August 19 minutes. With the next policy meeting set for September 15–16 and key CPI, PCE, and employment releases due beforehand, trader positioning on near-term rate-hike probabilities remains sensitive to whether incoming data show further cooling or reacceleration in price pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,377,510 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Reunión de septiembre
35%
Reunión de octubre
43%
$2,377,510 Vol.
Reunión de septiembre
$919,403 Vol.
35%
Reunión de octubre
$498,107 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive FOMC meetings, including the July 29 decision that featured a 9-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3%—well above the 2% mandate—along with supply-side pressures from tariffs, Middle East energy costs, and AI-driven demand has kept tightening risks in focus, as reflected in the August 19 minutes. With the next policy meeting set for September 15–16 and key CPI, PCE, and employment releases due beforehand, trader positioning on near-term rate-hike probabilities remains sensitive to whether incoming data show further cooling or reacceleration in price pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$2,377,510Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive FOMC meetings, including the July 29 decision that featured a 9-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3%—well above the 2% mandate—along with supply-side pressures from tariffs, Middle East energy costs, and AI-driven demand has kept tightening risks in focus, as reflected in the August 19 minutes. With the next policy meeting set for September 15–16 and key CPI, PCE, and employment releases due beforehand, trader positioning on near-term rate-hike probabilities remains sensitive to whether incoming data show further cooling or reacceleration in price pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,377,510Fecha de finalización
29 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75% through five consecutive FOMC meetings, including the July 29 decision that featured a 9-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.3%—well above the 2% mandate—along with supply-side pressures from tariffs, Middle East energy costs, and AI-driven demand has kept tightening risks in focus, as reflected in the August 19 minutes. With the next policy meeting set for September 15–16 and key CPI, PCE, and employment releases due beforehand, trader positioning on near-term rate-hike probabilities remains sensitive to whether incoming data show further cooling or reacceleration in price pressures.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes