Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with tariff effects and lingering energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, has kept the policy rate steady in the 3.5-3.75% range. Recent FOMC minutes and updated June projections show rising support among participants for tighter policy by year-end, with nine officials now projecting at least one hike. This backdrop underpins the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the December meeting while supporting the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase, as traders weigh resilient growth against the risk of further supply-driven price pressures ahead of the September FOMC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambios 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
$278,283 Vol.
$278,283 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
9%
Sin cambios
61%
25 bps increase
29%
50+ bps increase
3%
Sin cambios 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
$278,283 Vol.
$278,283 Vol.
9 dic 2026
50+ bps decrease
$52,094 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$60,838 Vol.
9%
Sin cambios
$50,033 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$57,512 Vol.
29%
50+ bps increase
$57,806 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with tariff effects and lingering energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, has kept the policy rate steady in the 3.5-3.75% range. Recent FOMC minutes and updated June projections show rising support among participants for tighter policy by year-end, with nine officials now projecting at least one hike. This backdrop underpins the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the December meeting while supporting the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase, as traders weigh resilient growth against the risk of further supply-driven price pressures ahead of the September FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volumen
$278,283Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with tariff effects and lingering energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, has kept the policy rate steady in the 3.5-3.75% range. Recent FOMC minutes and updated June projections show rising support among participants for tighter policy by year-end, with nine officials now projecting at least one hike. This backdrop underpins the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the December meeting while supporting the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase, as traders weigh resilient growth against the risk of further supply-driven price pressures ahead of the September FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$278,283Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, combined with tariff effects and lingering energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, has kept the policy rate steady in the 3.5-3.75% range. Recent FOMC minutes and updated June projections show rising support among participants for tighter policy by year-end, with nine officials now projecting at least one hike. This backdrop underpins the 60.5% implied probability of no change at the December meeting while supporting the 29% odds of a 25 basis point increase, as traders weigh resilient growth against the risk of further supply-driven price pressures ahead of the September FOMC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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