The Trump administration has prioritized economic sanctions, secondary measures targeting foreign entities, and diplomatic pressure on Cuba to secure reforms and reduce ties with adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio consistently framing outcomes around gradual regime weakening rather than direct military action. Pentagon discussions of intervention options, including air assaults or leadership targeting, have surfaced amid broader Caribbean deployments, yet officials stress these remain exploratory with no authorization for execution. Recent State Department reporting on Cuban activities and an indictment of Raúl Castro have heightened rhetoric without shifting policy toward invasion, reflecting the substantial operational, humanitarian, and political costs of a full-scale operation against a neighbor 90 miles offshore. Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion in 2026, consistent with the administration's track record of favoring coercive diplomacy and the absence of imminent triggers for escalation.