Russia remains heavily committed to its grinding offensive operations inside Ukraine as of mid-August 2026, with forces preparing further pushes in Donetsk Oblast while absorbing Ukrainian counter-advances and deep strikes. This sustained campaign, combined with documented manpower shortages, equipment attrition, and economic pressures, has left Moscow with limited capacity to open a second conventional front against another sovereign state. Western intelligence and NATO assessments continue to highlight elevated hybrid risks—such as sabotage, airspace probes, and influence operations targeting the Baltics or Poland—but emphasize that these fall short of full-scale invasion thresholds. Strong NATO deterrence, European rearmament, and Russia's focus on consolidating gains in Ukraine reinforce trader expectations that no new cross-border invasion will occur before year-end.