President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China triggered the market, citing adversary activities that U.S. compliance reports have flagged since 2019. However, senior officials testified in March 2026 that implementation remains under assessment with no decision on yield-producing underground explosions, while technical experts estimate at least 36 months to restore full readiness at the Nevada National Security Site. The 1992 moratorium continues, New START limits lapsed in February 2026, and preparations center on subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship funding rather than imminent explosive tests. With only months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution window, trader consensus reflects these procedural, infrastructure, and diplomatic hurdles. Scheduled appropriations debates and any administration updates on test readiness could still shift probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$768,738 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. September 2026
1%
31. Dezember 2026
5%
$768,738 Vol.
30. September 2026
$57,177 Vol.
1%
31. Dezember 2026
$50,749 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China triggered the market, citing adversary activities that U.S. compliance reports have flagged since 2019. However, senior officials testified in March 2026 that implementation remains under assessment with no decision on yield-producing underground explosions, while technical experts estimate at least 36 months to restore full readiness at the Nevada National Security Site. The 1992 moratorium continues, New START limits lapsed in February 2026, and preparations center on subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship funding rather than imminent explosive tests. With only months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution window, trader consensus reflects these procedural, infrastructure, and diplomatic hurdles. Scheduled appropriations debates and any administration updates on test readiness could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$768,738Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China triggered the market, citing adversary activities that U.S. compliance reports have flagged since 2019. However, senior officials testified in March 2026 that implementation remains under assessment with no decision on yield-producing underground explosions, while technical experts estimate at least 36 months to restore full readiness at the Nevada National Security Site. The 1992 moratorium continues, New START limits lapsed in February 2026, and preparations center on subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship funding rather than imminent explosive tests. With only months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution window, trader consensus reflects these procedural, infrastructure, and diplomatic hurdles. Scheduled appropriations debates and any administration updates on test readiness could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$768,738Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China triggered the market, citing adversary activities that U.S. compliance reports have flagged since 2019. However, senior officials testified in March 2026 that implementation remains under assessment with no decision on yield-producing underground explosions, while technical experts estimate at least 36 months to restore full readiness at the Nevada National Security Site. The 1992 moratorium continues, New START limits lapsed in February 2026, and preparations center on subcritical experiments and stockpile stewardship funding rather than imminent explosive tests. With only months left before the December 31, 2026 resolution window, trader consensus reflects these procedural, infrastructure, and diplomatic hurdles. Scheduled appropriations debates and any administration updates on test readiness could still shift probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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