Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering major facilities inoperable and limiting uranium enrichment activities according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Iran has not resumed large-scale enrichment at affected locations, maintains a stockpile of near-weapons-grade material but lacks verified access for inspectors at damaged sites, and shows ongoing but slowed reconstruction efforts at secondary locations. These setbacks, combined with continued international scrutiny and Iran's public statements ruling out immediate weaponization steps, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027 despite Tehran's historical enrichment advances.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$203,461 Vol.
$203,461 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$203,461 Vol.
$203,461 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering major facilities inoperable and limiting uranium enrichment activities according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Iran has not resumed large-scale enrichment at affected locations, maintains a stockpile of near-weapons-grade material but lacks verified access for inspectors at damaged sites, and shows ongoing but slowed reconstruction efforts at secondary locations. These setbacks, combined with continued international scrutiny and Iran's public statements ruling out immediate weaponization steps, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027 despite Tehran's historical enrichment advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$203,461Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering major facilities inoperable and limiting uranium enrichment activities according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Iran has not resumed large-scale enrichment at affected locations, maintains a stockpile of near-weapons-grade material but lacks verified access for inspectors at damaged sites, and shows ongoing but slowed reconstruction efforts at secondary locations. These setbacks, combined with continued international scrutiny and Iran's public statements ruling out immediate weaponization steps, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027 despite Tehran's historical enrichment advances.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$203,461Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering major facilities inoperable and limiting uranium enrichment activities according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. Iran has not resumed large-scale enrichment at affected locations, maintains a stockpile of near-weapons-grade material but lacks verified access for inspectors at damaged sites, and shows ongoing but slowed reconstruction efforts at secondary locations. These setbacks, combined with continued international scrutiny and Iran's public statements ruling out immediate weaponization steps, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027 despite Tehran's historical enrichment advances.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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