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icon for Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?
Politik·Ukraine

Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?

icon for Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?
Politik·Ukraine

Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?

Aug. 31

Dez. 31

Aug. 31

Dez. 31

Ja

15% Chance
Polymarket

$2,571,890 Vol.

Ja

15% Chance
Polymarket

$2,571,890 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent gaps between Russian and Ukrainian positions on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms continue to stall negotiations, supporting trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027. Multiple US-mediated rounds in 2025 and early 2026, including sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes. As of July 2026, Kremlin officials stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming talks despite openness to the concept, while battlefield activity persisted with Russian advances halted but Ukrainian deep strikes ongoing. Brief holiday ceasefires have not translated into sustained diplomacy, and Russia's insistence on maximalist demands alongside Ukraine's requirements for credible long-term protections align with the current market consensus on delayed or absent resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.

Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.

The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,571,890
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent gaps between Russian and Ukrainian positions on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms continue to stall negotiations, supporting trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be signed before 2027. Multiple US-mediated rounds in 2025 and early 2026, including sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, produced only limited prisoner exchanges without resolving core disputes. As of July 2026, Kremlin officials stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming talks despite openness to the concept, while battlefield activity persisted with Russian advances halted but Ukrainian deep strikes ongoing. Brief holiday ceasefires have not translated into sustained diplomacy, and Russia's insistence on maximalist demands alongside Ukraine's requirements for credible long-term protections align with the current market consensus on delayed or absent resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.

Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.

The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,571,890
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

icon for Russland x Ukraine Friedensgespräche

Russland x Ukraine Friedensgespräche

9%
Ja
icon for Wird die Ukraine zustimmen, vor 2027 Gebiete an Russland abzutreten?

Wird die Ukraine zustimmen, vor 2027 Gebiete an Russland abzutreten?

7%
Ja
icon for Stimmt die Ukraine zu, der NATO vor 2027 nicht beizutreten?

Stimmt die Ukraine zu, der NATO vor 2027 nicht beizutreten?

9%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?" mit 14%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 14¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 14% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?" ist „Unterzeichnet die Ukraine vor 2027 ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?" mit 14%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 14% zuweist. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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