Close bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s new president Abelardo de la Espriella has anchored trader expectations against any U.S. invasion in 2026. The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration produced a formal military partnership, including U.S. Southern Command engagement, intelligence sharing, joint counter-narcotics operations, Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, and a planned $1 billion U.S. security assistance package focused on Pacific trafficking routes and armed groups. These steps build on decades of partnership rather than confrontation. Late-year diplomatic rupture, an unforeseen escalation from counternarcotics strikes, or a major bilateral incident remain the primary variables that could still shift probabilities before December 31.